Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A big, wet storm with rising snow levels will saturate the mountains with rain up to 6000’ by afternoon. Expect large natural avalanches at the peak of the storm - some could run long distances. Very strong winds and stormy, nasty conditions provide even more reasons to come up with alternatives to mountain travel for Sunday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Avalanche problems will evolve over the course of the day. In the morning there will be enough new snow that fresh storm and wind slabs will be the primary concern. As the rain-snow line rises avalanches will shift more toward wet loose. With enough rain wet slabs, glide avalanches and cornice falls will come into play.

    At the end of the day, the actual problems are less important than acknowledging the weather factors that will make Sunday a dangerous one. Rising freezing levels, very, very strong winds, and plenty of precipitation are all the reasons needed to avoid being on or under steep slopes. Natural avalanches are not guaranteed everywhere, but the weather and snowpack setup to see them is a sure thing in some areas.

    If traveling at lower elevations, move quickly through or simply avoid gullies or other terrain features you suspect could funnel avalanche debris from higher elevations.

Avalanche Discussion

Observers across West North found challenging travel conditions and a bit less avalanche danger than expected, at least in the morning. Overnight temperatures in the mid-20s at 5000’ made for a breakable crust and locked up the snowpack anyplace that saw rain in the last 48 hours. On the plus side fresh snowfall started first thing in the morning and lasted most of the day. This improved riding conditions but also provided some fresh material for moderate winds to drift onto leeward slopes Shallow but reactive wind slabs were found in the Baker Backcountry by mid morning.

With better visibility, some of the damage from the last round of natural avalanches became more apparent. Large wet loose avalanches to D2 were observed on all aspects around the Baker Backcountry. Other areas like Canyon Creek - which saw lower precipitation totals through the storm - had less observed avalanche activity. While the mountains didn’t exactly fall apart at the seams, the last storm brought enough precipitation at warm temperatures to shake things up.

Precipitation totals (and avalanche danger) varied a ton across the zone with the last storm. Snotel sites like Wells Creek and Middle Fork Nooksack saw about 1” of precipitation, mostly in the liquid form. Heather Meadows more than doubled that with  2.5” since precipitation started Thursday afternoon. About 6” of wet new snow fell at 5000’ with way more snow at upper elevations. The rain-snow line hovered around 4000’ to 4500’ most of the day.

Regions covered