Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

There are two main concerns today. The first, and most likely, are avalanches failing 1 to 2' deep within the new and windblown snow from this week. You are most likely to encounter this problem at mid and upper elevations near ridgelines, in steep gullies, and below convex rolls. The second problem is the much less likely, but much larger avalanche failing on weak snow buried 2 to 6' deep. This problem is most concerning above 3000' and is becoming very unlikely but is still worth paying attention to.

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Join us TOMORROW, Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: No recent avalanches have been reported in the Seward area since last week's warm and wet storm.

    Tuesday's storm snow appears to be bonding well to the older snow surfaces. We have seen some small wind slab avalanches and some fast-moving dry loose avalanches, but so far, there hasn't been any activity that we are aware of that has been large enough to bury a person. 

    With 8 to 12" new snow sitting on top of a crust up to at least 3000', along with periods of sustained winds that have created sensitive drifts of new snow in the mid and upper elevations, it will be important to assess surface stability before committing to steep terrain. This is the kind of avalanche problem that may be evaluated by quick travel tests like hand pits and test slopes. Avoid steep terrain if you notice a layer of stiff snow sitting on top of softer snow just below the surface. 

    Right now, there is a lot of terrain where the main concern will be fast-moving dry loose avalanches running on the firm surface that formed last week. This type of avalanche problem can be more easily managed than most, but can still be a concern if you were to get carried into terrain traps like trees, cliffs, rocks, or gullies. 

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The deep layer of weak snow that has been a concern for over a month is becoming increasingly stubborn, making it much less likely to trigger a larger avalanche. However, it is not something we are ready to trust entirely just yet. These deep persistent weak layers are very difficult to assess, but we expect it is still a concern above 2500'. For now, the best way to manage this problem is to avoid committing to big terrain with severe consequences. This includes slopes with the terrain traps discussed in Problem 1 above, as well as slopes with large, connected start zones where an avalanche could propagate a wide distance.

    We are getting close to the point when we can stop worrying about this layer, but it is still on our radar for now.

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