Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Triggering a persistent slab avalanche today is still likely, especially on North and East aspects near and above treeline where these slopes saw the most significant loading from strong winds on Dec 28. There is still a concern that you can remotely trigger one of these avalanches. Recent natural avalanche activity has been stepping down into old snow creating a persistent slab avalanche large enough to bury, injure or kill a person. Avoid slopes greater than 35 degrees as well as crossed loaded features and areas showing signs of wind loading. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Newly formed cohesive slabs rest on top of weak faceted snow formed during an extended two-week period of high pressure prior to this last storm event (Dec 27-29) Natural persistent slab avalanches have been observed on many North and East aspects near and above treeline over the past few days. Strong southwest winds loading these aspects was the likely culprit that tipped the scales.  Two natural avalanches were also observed on southeast aspects above treeline. The eastern component on these slopes likely aided in cross loading that led to a natural release. 

    West aspects are still listed on the rose. We likely didn't see natural avalanche activity on this aspect due to the winds generally stripping snow from these slopes not loading them. However, we know there is buried weak faceted snow on this aspect. Signs of wind loading or crossed loaded features should be taken seriously. The need to address slopes individually on western aspects I feel is pretty important right now. Taking out the shovel can help identify if poor structure exists and what the characteristics of the slabs are on top. Signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks are all good indications the recipe for a persistent slab avalanche is present. 

    Persistent slab avalanches right now still have the potential to be remotely triggered and will likely be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person.

    An East aspect near treeline had several natural avalanches from Dec 29 that stepped down into old snow.

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals from Dec 27-29 were 8 to 12 inches of snow from 0.7 to 1.1 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE). Strong southwest winds that accompanied this event were the major contributing factor behind a natural avalanche cycle that predominantly occurred on North and East aspects near and above treeline on the morning of Dec 29. These avalanches have been failing into a layer of facets buried about 2ft down just underneath a wind slab or wind crust. Many of these natural avalanches were large (D2) and capable of burying, injuring, or killing a person. Two natural avalanches on Southeast aspects have also been observed - likely occurring from high winds cross-loading those features. 

Newly formed slabs sitting over buried weak faceted snow continue to keep persistent slab avalanches in the forecast. This weak faceted snow is really well connected across our terrain right now resulting in a widespread avalanche concern. North and East aspects near and above treeline are the most likely areas you will trigger a persistent slab avalanche today. Many of these slopes already avalanched naturally on Dec 29 and the ones that haven't likely just need a skier or rider on them to release. We still believe human-triggered avalanches are likely today. We recommend staying away from slopes greater than 35 degrees and using cautious route-finding to avoid exposing yourself to slopes above you. 

Below treeline we are not finding a very cohesive slab present. Open areas and slopes that may have seen a bit more wind will have slabs with a little more strength in them and should be given respect. If you're traveling and skiing around below treeline today address the terrain as it comes and keep an eye out for stiffening of the snow to indicate you may have a slab capable of producing an avalanche. The normal signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks will let you know all the ingredients needed are there.

Solar-induced surface instability may also produce small loose snow avalanches on solar aspects at all elevations by early afternoon today. It's possible small avalanches may break into buried weak snow creating a persistent slab avalanche. Below treeline, cohesion-less snow may be able to produce small dry loose avalanches in steep terrain features. 

Regions covered