Northern New Mexico

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche at upper elevations on northerly through east aspects where 1 to 3-foot slabs rest on top of facted weak layers and depth hoar.  Triggering an avalanche has become more stubborn, but the consequences remain high if you do trigger a slide, as it could potentially send most of the season's snowpack downhill.

At lower elevations, most slopes have little snow left on them, with crusts on the surface from the last 2+ weeks of warm weather.  Ground hazards and difficult skiing and riding are the biggest challenges here. 

Warmer and breezier weather will be the name of the game today, with temps pushing into the 40s in the mountains and Southwest winds in the 15-25mph range.  Daylight savings began last night, so the sun will be an hour delayed this morning and won't set until around 7pm.  Warm - at times, record breaking - temperatures and higher sun angles over the last two weeks have done some serious damage to our shallow snowpack.  A lot of the solar aspects and lower elevation terrain have melted back to bare ground, and surface crusts abound even on northerly aspects up to 12,000'.  Many trailheads have sparse to no coverage or otherwise icy, slick conditions on your way uphill, so keep expectations within reason for travel and riding quality. 

For most of our terrain, the avalanche danger is Low.  Ground hazards and challenging riding conditions will be the biggest concerns.  At upper elevations on northerly and east aspects is where the persistent slab avalanche problem continues to linger due to an overall poor snowpack structure of a slab over weak layers.  As we push further away from the last significant loading event, triggering an avalanche has become more difficult, but not impossible.  The weak snow near the ground is still easy to impact in travels in the overall shallow snowpack we currently have.  These slopes will look the most enticing to ski and ride, as they'll be the deepest and contain the most continuous snow coverage.  Pushing a probe pole through the snowpack in several places or digging a pit to see if the slope you're choosing to ride has this strong over weak layering is never a bad idea. 

The outlook for us in northern NM looks pretty grim as long-range models show more warming and no significant snow in the forecast.  We've only picked up 76 inches of total snowfall this season, and it doesn't look like we'll be seeing a miracle March.  There's at least some positive news of the potential moderate to strong El Niño forming by the end of 2026.  With what's shaping up to be back-to-back historically bad years, much of the focus for NM heading into spring will be on fire danger and low water flowing in our rivers and acequias.

With low snow and minimal moisture in the forecast for the foreseeable future, we'll be shutting down the avalanche center with no active forecasts after this weekend. We'll update if a storm moves in sometime by mid April.