Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

With another warm day in store, you could still trigger large avalanches that break widely across terrain and wet avalanches. Steer clear of steep, open slopes, especially in sunny or wind-affected terrain. The best way to manage this scary snowpack is to default to lower-angle terrain, small slopes, and avoid lingering below cornices or steep overhead slopes.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As is the theme for this season, we'll have another day of warm temperatures and sunshine. Recently formed surface crusts will need to break down before you'll see wet avalanches, but watch for wet avalanches on sunny slopes as the day progresses. Many will be smaller point releases on steep slopes, but they could combine with persistent slabs. You can avoid wet avalanches by moving to shadier low-angle slopes as surfaces become wet. With uncertainty and overlapping avalanche problems, stick to slopes under 35 degrees.

    (1/14/2026)

    An example of loose wet avalanches, broken cornices from January. Hinkhouse Peak. S, 7,400ft

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Persistent slab avalanches can be very large, break widely across terrain features, and be triggered from a distance. With this high-consequence problem, it's best to avoid large, open, steep terrain. Recently, wind-loaded terrain with stiff, textured drifts and open slopes heating up in the sun are the most likely places for this problem. But it's worth treating most steep slopes with suspicion. Keep your distance from these features and stay well clear of cornices, which could weaken and fail, potentially triggering large avalanches on the slopes below.

    Natural avalanches are still a daily occurrence, and one slide had a crown nearly a half-mile wide (Pictured here). Many of these avalanches occurred on southern aspects, and warming could have contributed to the increased avalanche activity. With another warm day in store, this trend could continue, and we may begin to see avalanches in more sheltered terrain. Given the high consequences, it's worth taking a big step back and giving the snowpack time to adjust. 

    (2/28/2026)

    A widely propagating natural avalanche below Cutthroat Peak. This avalanche is suspected to have failed on weak snow over the 2/7 crust. 7000ft, S-SW aspectN-R4-D2.5-O 

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

After a major wind event, continued prolonged warming is stressing an already weak snowpack. We have uncertainty around how long warming will continue to prolong instability. But new avalanches are still being reported, so considering these unknowns and the potentially high consequences, give yourself wider safety margins around large, open slopes. Consider sheltered, low-angle terrain as a safer alternative. 

Since midweek, there's been a widespread cycle of natural and triggered avalanches in the East North zone. On the 28th, observers reported widespread natural avalanches, and an individual was partially buried in a large avalanche in wind-loaded terrain. We suspect that the weak, faceted snow over the 2/7 crust is the culprit in many of these occurrences. Many avalanches over the last week have been large to very large, and some have had wide crowns. Some avalanches were shallower, more typical of wind slabs at the base of cliffs. 

1-2 feet below the surface is a weak layer over a crust (February 7th). Immediately above the crust are weak faceted grains and, in some places, surface hoar. The January 28th crust is thicker and another 6-12" deeper.  On southerly aspects, there are more crusts and less dry, weak snow on the surface. West of Washington Pass, overall, the layers will be deeper, with thicker crusts and more snow between them. Further north and east, in places like Hart's Pass and the Chewuch and Twisp River drainages, the snowpack is shallower and weaker. We have little recent information in the eastern mountains and suspect a very weak snowpack.

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