Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Peak storm intensities will hit full throttle midday and into tonight. Feet of new snow will be ushered in by strong southerly winds, creating very dangerous avalanche conditions on all aspects and elevations. Avoid terrain with a slope angle over 30 degrees that is experiencing wind loading and rapid snowfall accumulation. Conservative travel and decision-making will be essential today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Certain
    Size
    1–2

    Today winds will be ruthless, blowing from the south at strong to extreme speeds. Snowfall rates will push an inch per hour. This will cause a rapid rise in instability as the day advances. Both wind slabs and storm slabs are most likely to occur during the second half of the day, and the two problems may overlap one another. For this reason, give yourself a wide safety margin. Steer clear of all slopes steeper than 30 degrees experiencing wind loading and holding over eight inches of new storm snow.

    The powerful winds will make it possible for wind slabs to form in more forested areas and further down on slopes. Natural avalanches are likely and will be big enough to bury a person. Be cognizant of your surroundings, like terrain traps, and monitor the depth and reactivity of surface slab growth. Large shooting cracks, whumphing, and recent avalanches are red flags telling you the snowpack is unsafe.

    (3/13/2023)

    Storm slab breaking along convex rollover below treeline 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

It’s been a lengthy arrival, but a promising storm is finally here. Don't let powder fever get the best of you in the days to come. Doing your homework and balancing those safety margins to step out cautiously to confidently will be paramount.

After nearly a week of unseasonably warm temperatures, new snow will be falling on a homogenized snowpack for the most part. Many receiving surfaces will likely be a mixture of melt-freeze snow. Above treeline, where temperatures have been fluctuating, thin to thick surface crusts may have formed. In avalanche start zones, these could prove problematic under a large new load.  

To get a better idea of what types of surfaces snow will be falling on, check out this observation from the east boundary of Gray Butte yesterday.

Regions covered