Avalanche forecast

Northern Wallowas

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It remains possible to trigger a very large avalanche breaking 2-6' deep in the snowpack. New snow has created storm and wind slab instabilities. Triggering an avalanche in the new snow could be enough of a trigger to cause an avalanche deeper in the snowpack to release. Staying off slopes steeper than 30 degrees is advised to avoid triggering an avalanche.

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    The snowpack in the Northern Wallowas is currently weaker than the other forecast zones. Despite the warm weather and rain in late January, poor snowpack structure still exists. The possibility of triggering a persistent slab avalanche is still a very real one. The slab of snow sitting above the weak layers has gotten more dense due to recent weather. Triggering an avalanche would have serious consequences. If you want to avoid avalanches you should stay off of slopes greater than 30 degrees. 

    In my travels on Friday 2/2 , I had propagating fractures in both Compression and Extended Column Tests in the November/December snow despite a 7cm/2in thick crust under the new snow.

      

    (2/1/2024)

    The orange line shows the weak snow causing the persistent slab problem.

    Photo: Caleb Merrill

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A foot of new snow has fallen since February 1 when this storm began. The winds have redistributed and stiffened that snow on all aspects near and above tree line. Look for drifts, cornices, textured snow, and cracking as signs you are on a wind slab. These slabs have formed on top of lower density snow with a thick crust below them. This is an excellent recipe for an avalanche, just add a trigger. Don't be that trigger, remember that this fresh snow lies on top of a dangerous snowpack. If you are on a slope steep enough to trigger a wind slab, it's also steep enough for a persistent slab.

    Cracking in new wind-blown snow on a small test slope.

    Photo: Nick Burks

Avalanche Discussion

A foot of new snow has fallen since Thursday 2/1, when this storm began. Wind slabs, storm slabs, and dry loose avalanches are possible.  The firm crust that sits below all this new snow creates an excellent sliding surface for any avalanche that gets started. Despite this crust, the snowpack below is still sensitive and weak.  Forecaster Caleb Merrill posted this observation showing reactive stability test results on the weak snow from November/December 2/1 in the Northern Wallowas. I found similar results on Friday 2/2. All these factors make for a complex environment to travel through. When the complexity and consequences are high, it's best to keep it simple and choose terrain less than 30 degrees.  Continued vigilance is necessary to avoid getting caught in a powerful destructive avalanche.

 

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