Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Today, pay attention to changes in the weather and watch for unstable wind drifted snow on isolated south-facing terrain features. Lookout for snow blowing from ridgelines and snow accumulating for the avalanche hazard to be increasing.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    There is a possibility that small wind slabs could build today in south-facing terrain at middle and upper elevations. The new slabs will be easy to identify as it will be bright white and in contrast with the dirty old snow surface. Pay attention if you see snow drifting, blowing snow from ridgelines, and snow accumulating as this means the avalanche hazard is increasing. 

    If you encounter a wind slab, dig down to the old snow interface with hand shears to discern the sensitivity. Using your ski pole or paying attention to boot penetration will help you to measure and understand the size of the wind slab. You can also reduce your risk by traveling on the refreezing old snow surface.

Avalanche Discussion

Today feels like a big game of what-if, and it really hinges on temperature.

Weather forecasts indicate low precipitation and probability, which will limit snow accumulation and the development of avalanche problems. Several models predict warmer temperatures during the majority of the precipitation, resulting in a mix of rain and snow, followed by a drop in temperatures. However, temperatures this morning are already trending colder than forecast and could account for the discrepancies among different models.

North winds tend to not productively build wind slabs in the majority of ravines, with an exception of Oakes Gulf. The wind speeds are strong, but at the lower end of what typically builds slabs. This snow will fall on a wet, refreezing surface and the snow itself could be wet and heavy. All of these factors could limit how effectively this snow might move and how a wind slab problem will develop. 

With lack of alignment in various forecasts, today will require keen observations of changing conditions. If you find deeper wind drifted snow or see blowing snow you know that you have found an avalanche problem. 

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

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