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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2012–Feb 20th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Check out the recent Forecaster Blog post discussing the "Tipping Point".

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Monday: flurries bringing minimal accumulation of new snow. Light to moderate NW winds. Freezing level around 800 m. Tuesday: 5-10 cm new snow with winds increasing moderate to strong from the NW. Freezing level rising to 1000 m. Tuesday night into Wednesday: a slightly stronger band of moisture arrives bringing 10-15 cm new snow, freezing levels rising to 1500 m and strong westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Snow amounts over the early Feb weak layer reached threshold in many places on Saturday. Natural avalanches were observed in the storm snow to size 1.5. Avalanche control at Kootenay Pass produced avalanches up to size 2 running on a crust buried around 35 cm below the surface. Read the forecaster blog for further discussion on reaching the "tipping point".

Snowpack Summary

Saturday's storm brought around 15 cm new snow, bringing the gradually incrementing snow amounts above the early Feburary surface hoar layer to around 30 cm. Alpine winds have been strong enough to blow snow around and touchy wind slabs have formed predominantly on northerly and easterly aspects. The early February weak layer comprises large surface hoar on sheltered aspects, facets on northerly aspects and a crust on solar aspects. In shallow snowpack areas concerns remain for the mid-December persistent weakness down around 80-100cm and for basal facets. Treeline snowpack depths are approximately 230 cm.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.