Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The main concern continues to be triggering a persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers that are 2 to 5 feet down in the snowpack.  The most likely place you'll find this strong over weak poor snowpack structure is on northerly and east aspects. Although the likelihood of triggering one of these large avalanches is decreasing the consequences remain incredibly high if you do.  Steer clear of slopes over 35 degrees on northerly and east aspects, avoiding likely trigger points on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops.  Smaller wind slabs may be found at upper elevations from the moderate to strong winds and recent snowfall.  Avoid steep slopes where you find 6 or more inches of wind drifted snow.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers from Jan/Feb are capped by dense slabs from snow we received at the beginning of March.  As we push further away from the last significant loading event, it's becoming more stubborn to trigger an avalanche but not impossible.  Although there's a "lower" likelihood of triggering a slide the consequences are still high as last week's very large natural avalanches showed us.  Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, near rock outcroppings where you're more likely to impact these deeper weak layers. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may or may not be present.  It also may not be the first or second person on the slope to trigger an avalanche, but may just take finding that right trigger point to release an avalanche.   

    Faceted weak layers that formed over dry periods during Jan/Feb are now capped by dense slabs from storms at the end of Feb and early March leading to this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    At upper elevations, you may find pockets of wind drifted snow from yesterday's 3 to 4 inches and moderate to strong winds.  With NE/E winds expect to find these shallow slabs on the south and west aspects, but with this not being our typical wind pattern, you may find wind slabs in atypical places today.  Watch for obvious wind drifted pillows and overall stiffening of the surface. Avoid steep slopes where you find 6 or more inches of wind drifted snow.  Shooting cracks on the surface are indications you've found a shallow wind slab.  

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's storm was somewhat of an underperformer with 3 to 4 inches of snow and NE/E winds in the 15 - 25 mph range and gusts in the 40's.  Winds have quieted down overnight and a warming trend is expected over the next couple of days.  Today will bring partly cloudy skies and a chance of flurries this afternoon. Saturday looks to be a beautiful spring day with warm temperatures, light winds and sunny skies. The weather focus will shift to a potentially significant storm Sunday evening through Monday.  There is still some model disagreement about the overall track of this system, with the GFS tracking the storm further north (which is good for us) than the ECMWF and CMC models.

The persistent slab problem continues to linger with the bulls-eye being on northerly and east aspects.  Although natural avalanche activity has subsided in the last week, and as we push further away from the last loading, it's becoming more difficult to trigger an avalanche, the consequences are incredibly high you do.  The very large natural avalanche on the backside of Kachina Peak last Saturday show's what an avalanche might look like if you were to trigger one of these large avalanches.  This persistent slab problem is similar to what other areas in Utah and CO are dealing with. On March 17th a snowboarder was caught, buried and killed in an avalanche on a NW slope above treeline southeast of Trout Lake near the town of Ophir close to Telluride. The snowboarder was buried about 2 meters deep and unfortunately did not survive.  Our condolences go out to the family and everyone that was involved in the accident.  

In recent travels, variable conditions existed prior to this last little storm across elevations and aspects, with crusts forming on the surface on solar aspects from warm temperatures and our intense sun this time of year.  Northerly aspects still have cold dry snow and are where you'll find the best skiing and riding conditions.  This is also where our persistent slab is found. In my travels, I've not been finding obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks or loud audible collapses, but extended column tests continue to produce moderate to hard results with full propagation where the weak layers are less than a meter below the surface.  Unfortunately, this persistent weak layer is going to be living with us for a little while longer and may become more reactive with an additional load at the beginning of next week. In Santa Fe, an observation found this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak in an overall shallower snowpack (110cm on NW aspect below treeline) that what we are finding up here a little bit to the north.    

 

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