Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Recently developed wind slabs in steep terrain and persistent weak layers are the two issues to keep on your radar today. Small windslabs may be easily triggered today in steep terrain, on north and east aspect, below ridgeline and steep gullies. Additional snowfall and gusty winds will continue to build wind slabs through the day on Saturday. There is still potential to trigger a persistent weak layer in specific locations. Great snow conditions and safe riding can be found in areas that are protected from the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Friday, the mountains picked up 2-4" of snow throughout the day accompanied by moderate winds out of the west and southwest. In the East Cabinets I observed steady wind in the teens, with gust's exceeding 30 mph. Similiar observations were reported from the West Cabinets as well on Friday. Today will deliver more of the same with 4-8" predicted to fall in the Cabinets with similar winds speeds. This will continue to build these slabs through the day, which will increase avalanche hazard in steep terrain on north-east aspects at treeline and above.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Our persistent weak layer consisting of weak and sugary snow crystals resting on the "Lucky Friday" crust layer continues to remain a concern in specific terrain.  We are finding this layer on all aspects at Treeline and above; however, results on north and east facing terrain where the snowpack is thicker were not producing any results that showed avalanche potential this week. Aspects with thinner snowpack however are still producing concerning results (see video in discussion section). I would personally avoid big ski objectives or high marking on steep and exposed terrain that faces south or west at upper elevations, especially in the bigger terrain of the East Cabinets. These locations are where the snowpack is thin and more susceptible to human triggers.

Avalanche Discussion

This week we visited the Northwest Peaks area of the Yaak on Monday and ventured into the East Cabinets on Thursday. On Friday I took part of the day off to go skiing and made a quick trip back into the East Cabinets, while Nate  ventured  into the West Cabinets. We have covered alot of ground and elevation this week. In the "avalanche community" we often say that the first sign of avalanche hazard, is avalanches. The lack of recent avalanches is one of the first things that really caught my attention this week, despite touring in some very big and steep terrain on Thursday.  On Friday while touring on my personal time it was very evident that wind loading and slab development was in the works directly below ridgelines, where snow was being transported and packed into small and cohesive slabs. The other observation worth noting is the growth of surface hoar on the snowpack. On south and west terrain the winds have done a good job of laying the surface hoar over, in sheltered terrain however it remains standing and could pose a concern when our next round of snow rolls in. Our snowpack stability is really pretty good in most locations right now if you avoid wind loaded terrain and areas covered by the "persistent slab" problem.

So what's coming? Saturday we are predicted to see 4-8" of new snow and some gusty winds out of the south and west. We will see some small wind slabs increase in thickness and reactivity on the leeward side of ridgelines as the day progresses.The big thing to watch out for is a major shift in our weather pattern beginning Sunday night, which will likely cause a rise in avalanche danger on Monday through Wednesday. The National Weather Service is predicting a return of Ol' Man Winter with 3 days of snowfall wrapping up on Wednesday as a cold front pushes in for the remainder of the coming week. Discussions with the NWS office in Missoula are suggesting that we may see over 3" of "snow-water equivalent" above 4,000' from this storm, this could roughly translate to 30" or more of snow falling between Sunday night and Wednesdy morning. Winds will ramp up as well. Avalanche danger will likely rise in a big way starting Monday.

So, dig that big puffy jacket out that you just put away. Winter is back on!

 

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