Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Three to four inches of new snow yesterday combined with strong wind have increased the chances of triggering an avalanche in upper-elevation terrain. You’re most likely to trigger a slab avalanche in freshly formed wind drifts. Underneath these drifts, weak snow near the bottom of the snowpack continues to pose a threat. To reduce your risk, steer clear of slopes where the wind has stiffened the snow surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Three to four inches of new snow  yesterday combined with older snow on the ground and strong winds have built wind slabs that may be reactive to your weight today. Look for and steer clear of drifted and wind affected snow espesically along steep drainages and ridgetops. These slabs could be up to two feet thick and large enough to carry or potentially bury a person in the wrong terrain. A lingering persistent slab problem also exists and could lead to larger human-triggered avalanches and thicker slabs. Evaluate snow and terrain for both of these avalanche problem types if venturing into steep terrain today.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    New snow will form sensitive, though small, slabs today. Early-season persistent weak layers in the lower snowpack are widespread throughout this zone. What's less consistent is the nature and stability of these layers. Despite having such a poor overall snowpack structure, it is remarkable how little activity has been noted here. This is likely due to observation bias--so continue to send us your observations! This zone has very weak snow buried 2 to 4 feet deep on most middle and upper-elevation slopes. Digging a pit can easily identify most of these layers, and stepping off of a sled or probing for depth can also help identify weaker snow. Sinking deep into the snowpack on foot is a clear sign of a weaker snowpack. 

    Steeper areas you ride that are shallower now may likely prove more hazardous with any large snowfall or wind event, so keeping track of these areas will be useful.  The presence of these layers is the most important observation, and monitoring their activity with any incoming wind and snowfall. 

    WIND SLABS: Watch for snow that is denser than snow found on wind-sheltered slopes and tell-tale clues such as surface texture and a pillowed, drifted appearance. These will be less sensitive today, but I'd still avoid steep slopes where you find these indications of recent wind loading.

    (2/5/2023)

    This recent avalanche failed on weaker snow near the base of the snowpack and shows

    Photo: Dawson Hatch

Avalanche Discussion

Looking at row upon row of numbers from regional weather stations this morning paints an incomplete picture of current avalanche conditions on the ground. Limited visibility and few observations yesterday doesn't fill many gaps though an early morning report of a natural avalanche in the Park and many small storm slab avalanches yeterday help to complete the picture. Today, you are likely to find a variety of signs of potentially unstable snow due to wind direction shifting 90 degrees pre- and mid-storm, aprons of loose snow piled on soft snow beneath steep terrain features and lurking beneath it all is a concoction of crusts and facets that appears to be dormant though continues to add a question mark to otherwise confident terrain assessment. Sky conditions should allow for good visual assessment of snow surfaces, cornice growth and other signs of potential wind slabs. Keep the deeper weak layers in mind today especially in alpine areas where unsupported slopes, a variable or scoured thin snowpack could conspire to bring the weak layers of persistent weak snow grains within range of triggering.

Regions covered