Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise steadily throughout Monday as more snow falls and both the likelihood and size of avalanches increases.  With only a few inches of snow on the ground first thing in the morning, avalanche danger will be minimal.  By late in the day Wind Slab avalanches at treeline and in the alpine will be likely and could be large.  Pay attention to how much snow has fallen, and move to safer terrain as it piles up, or if you are seeing cracking or other signs of cohesive snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs will grow steadily throughout the day as more snow falls accompanied by Moderate and Strong winds from the West.  Wind Slabs occur when the wind blows snow onto leeward slopes and packs it into a more cohesive layer.  This occurs at treeline and in the alpine.  Wind Slabs are most likely below ridgetops on East slopes, or on the East side of features like mid-slope ridges, rocks, or small stands of trees.

    The Considerable Hazard represents the size and likelihood (thus danger) of Wind Slab avalanches later in the day on Monday once more snow has fallen.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As storm snow piles up, we will see instabilities below treeline as well.  With cooling temperatures these instabilities are most likely to be Dry Loose avalanches.  With only 20 cm. of new snow forecast by Monday evening, triggering a Dry loose avalanche that would bury or injure a rider is unlikely.  Small sluffs in steep terrain are more likely.

    When we forecast Dry Loose or Storm Slab avalanches, we are doing our best to forecast the avalanche character, but it is of course a forecast.  Whenever we are receiving new snow it is prudent to observe whether or not the new snow is forming a cohesive layer that could lead to a Slab avalanche.  If you see cracking in the new snow on steep, convex terrain then that would indicate a Storm Slab avalanche problem rather than Dry Loose.

Avalanche Discussion

Cold temperatures, and snowfall... Yup, that sounds a little better for this time of year.  A major winter storm will bring our usual stormy avalanche characters.  We will see significant Wind Slabs on East slopes by Monday evening and these will continue to grow into Tuesday.  By Tuesday morning enough snow will have fallen that we may also have instability below treeline, most likely Dry Loose avalanches, although there is the possibility of Storm Slabs.

Regions covered