Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You could trigger avalanches Sunday in two very different locations, where you find wet sticky snow and in spots where recent winds drifted snow deeper. In both cases, these avalanches should remain relatively small. However, even tiny slides can hurt you if they carry you into a creek or over a cliff.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Warm temperatures could cause another round of loose wet avalanches Sunday. Look for new rollerballs, wet sticky snow, and fresh point release slides to help you identify which aspects are becoming unstable. If you see these clues, you could trigger or encounter natural avalanches on similar slopes. 

    One thing that makes Sunday’s loose wet issue a bit unique is that we’re actually more worried about mid and upper elevation shaded slopes. These spots still harbor dry soft snow which could be most susceptible to Sunday’s warming. At lower elevations and on sunny aspects a surface crust should help limit the development of wet avalanche issues.

    (2/9/2023)

    This natural loose wet avalanche occurred during Thursday's (2/9) sunny and warm weather. 

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    A few lingering pockets of wind-drifted snow may still exist along ridgelines and on the lee sides of exposed features. Friday’s skier-triggered slide highlights this for us. Look for smooth firm pillow-like slabs of snow. Then simply go around them on lower angled or less wind-affected terrain to avoid the problem. 

    While these avalanches should be rather shallow and small, they often rest over a crust. This could cause them to trigger easily and run quickly. Don’t let them knock you off your feet or take you for a ride in high consequence terrain.

    (2/10/2023)

    A skier triggered wind slab on the top of Lost Bow. N, 5200ft HS-AS-D1-R1-S

    Public Field Report: Hurricane ridge (lost bowl)

    Photo: Vince Reichheld

Avalanche Discussion

There are several ways Sunday’s loose wet problem could play out (or not). Warm temperatures and some sunshine will fight a surface crust, increasing clouds, and cooling winds as they try to make the snow surface unstable. If thick clouds or stronger winds arrive early, you may not see any loose wet issues. However, if it turns out to be a very warm and sunny day, the wet concerns could become more widespread than expected. Pay attention to the weather and snow in front of you to see if the avalanche forecast matches your conditions. 

Another lingering question in the Olympics continues to be the 2/3 interface. On Thursday an NWAC observer and NPS rangers found a weak crust-facet layer below about 2ft (60cm) of snow. While this layer showed concerning test results on Northerly aspects, we still haven’t seen any avalanches. Sometimes that leaves us scratching our heads. It’s doubtful, that Sunday’s weather will have much effect on this potential weak layer. If you’re going to trigger a slide on the 2/3 interface it will likely occur in shaded unsupported or complex terrain. 

Aside from this concerning layer the upper snowpack typically consists of a new crust on southerly aspects and 4-6in (10-15cm) of dry snow over a crust on north-facing terrain.

Regions covered