Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible. You're most likely to encounter this problem on shaded slopes steeper than 30 degrees on the northern half of the compass. Lack of snow has made travel difficult. Areas with the deepest snow are the same places where it's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Old November snow near the ground is weak and has formed the foundation of our seasonal snowpack. Atop this weak snow rests a slab of denser snow from earlier this month. This indicates poor structure that is a classic recipe to produce avalanches. This weak snow is buried anywhere from 1.5-2 feet below the surface. You're most likely to find this poor structure on steeper slopes that face away from the sun. Think of any terrain that held snow through November. Unfortunately, these areas are the same slopes where people want to recreate because of the deeper snow. On other aspects with the slightest bit of solar influence, this weak snow is stronger and the overlying slab is broken up by crusts and softer snow.

    With persistent slab problems, sometimes the best management strategy is avoidance. Careful consideration of shaded E,NE,N,NW, and W slopes above 7000' is necessary to safely travel in the mountains right now.

    (12/20/2023) ECTP 13 on a N/NW aspect at 7200 55 cm below the surface. Failed in the weak snow near the ground. Photo: Kevin Studley

Avalanche Discussion

Happy first day of winter everyone! Hopefully it shows up soon. Yesterday, we rode snowmobiles up to No Business Lookout. You can find an observation I submitted here. Tuesday brought precipitation to the region with a dusting of snow above 7000' and rain below 6500'. This minimal amount of precipitation provided an interruption to an 8-day long dry spell. Temperatures will remain above average (as much as 10-15 degrees in some locations). An overall lack of snow continues to be the pervasive theme. Travel off trail is very limited, especially below 7000'. Even at the higher elevations, there are plenty of obstacles looming at or just underneath the surface. Friday night looks to bring a chance of 2-4 inches of snow and cooler temperatures to the region. It's important to remember that when (not if) winter arrives, our weak snowpack will not go away overnight. People are eager to get out in the mountains and patience is the name of the game with a shallow and weak snowpack. It will not be game on once more snow arrives in the mountains. The weak snow near the ground is healing. However, this is a slow process. 

Please continue sharing your observations this season.  We have a brand new observation platform. Check it out here. Have you been out in the mountains and want to submit an observation of your own? Submitting an observation improves your skills, informs other users, and benefits avalanche forecasts. Simple photos highlighting conditions are very helpful.