Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, small avalanches at higher elevations on all aspects are likely, with larger avalanches possible. Avalanche danger will be highest on sunny steep slopes/rollovers, near cliffs, and rocky outcroppings. Due to recent warm temperatures and mild overnight freezes, the primary concern is wet loose and wet slab avalanches.

Avalanche danger is expected to rise throughout the day. Once slopes accumulate approximately 6 inches of loose and cohesionless snow, it's advisable to prioritize finding cooler zones or consider calling it a day.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches have been minimal over the last week. However, avalanche activity will increase this weekend as daytime highs and overnight lows continue to climb. With forecasted mild overnight freezes at and above treeline this weekend coupled with the late April sun angles, expect wet loose activity earlier in the day than normal. Generally, these wet loose avalanches start on the surface of the snowpack as small point releases but will entrain more snow as they descend down the slope.  Be careful when traveling on soft and slushy snow on and near steep slopes above terrain features, such as cliffs and rocks, as these features increase the hazard and likelihood of wet loose avalanches.

    A small wet loose point release was noted on the east aspect of Rustler Peak in the Humphreys Cirque on Thursday. It was not clear when this avalanche occurred or if it was natural or human-triggered. Although the last 10 days have had minimal wet loose activity, expect activity to increase over the next few days as temperatures continue to warm.

    (4/18/2024)

    Current conditions in the Humphreys Cirque. Note the avalanche debris on the south east aspect from previous wet loose cycle. In addition, there was a small point release on an east aspect of Rustler peak that may have occured this week.

    Photo: Tanner Porter

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rapid warming and meltwater have the potential to create larger destructive avalanches as the snowpack continues to melt. Wet slabs occur when water saturates a layer within the snowpack, causing the slab above to fail as a cohesive layer. There are several melt-freeze crusts/facet combos that are 20-60cm below the surface that could facilitate this process and make an ideal weak layer/bed surface for these avalanches. 

    These avalanches are harder to predict, and signs of this problem are often subtle; however, they can be large and destructive. Avoid terrain where and when you suspect wet slab avalanche activity. Remember to give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty surrounding wet slab avalanches.

    (4/18/2024)

    A dense 25cm slab on the east-facing aspect failed just above a melt-freeze crust. ECTN18 with a vertical fracture ~1/2 way across the 90 cm block.

    Photo: Tanner Porter

Avalanche Discussion

Late-season storms have given the Kachina Peaks an above-average spring season, with the Snowslide SNOTEL currently recording 166% of the median snowpack. However, over the last few weeks, the snowpack has transitioned to spring, with corn and slush skiing available across aspects and elevations. However, it is important to remember that avalanche danger is still a concern near and above treeline, with wet loose and wet slab avalanches increasing in likelihood as temperatures warm throughout the day. In addition, backcountry travelers should be especially careful in areas where the snowpack did not or had a minimal freeze the previous night.

On Thursday afternoon, snow conditions were generally soft, with shallower and radiant slopes having more than six inches of water-saturated snow on the surface. Snowpits generally yielded warm isothermic temperature gradients with poor to moderate structure but limited propagation propensity (ECTN18). The exception to the warm isothermal gradients, were in areas with deeper snowpacks that have maintained colder temperatures. Finally, on an east aspect near the Humphreys Trail saddle, small sun cups were beginning to form highlighting that the season is beginning to wrap up in areas highly impacted by radiant heating.

If you are headed out early and the snowpack froze, ski and splitboard crampons are recommended. An ice axe or a whippet ski pole can be useful. Slopes are hard and icy until they begin to melt, and any slip could result in an out-of-control slip-n-slide. Although most of the mountain has entered a melt-freeze cycle, continue to practice appropriate backcountry travel. Ski one at a time, avoid stopping in run-out zones, and keep eyes on one another. Don't let end-of-season springtime conditions lull you into a state of complacency.

Our last forecast will be on Sunday, April 21, 2024.

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