Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

While the new drifts are settling, don’t rule out your chances of triggering a small avalanche on steep east and south-facing slopes above 3000 feet in elevation. Look for smooth, pillowy drifts that are deeper than your boot tops. Travel on firm, textured old snow surfaces to reduce your chances of triggering an avalanche today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    What and where is it:  About 2 inches of snow, combined with shifting southwest, west, and northwest extreme winds have built small wind slabs in east and south-facing terrain above 3000 feet in elevation. In many areas, these new wind slabs are unreactive, but you could find more reactive snow in wind-protected terrain features and in steep, unsupported terrain.

    How can you recognize it: Look to identify areas of concern that will be smooth and pillowy. As you move through terrain, use your pole or boot penetration to assess the size of these slabs. Dig down to the old snow interface and use formal and informal column tests to gauge sensitivity. You will most likely find unstable slabs in areas protected by the wind, like under cliffs or in gullies.

    How can you manage it: In most areas, you are likely to find unreactive wind slabs, but with spatial variability, wind-protected areas could harbour lingering reactivity in wind slabs. Accordingly, take time to assess the terrain and note features that hold smooth, pillowy snow, and assess the structure if they are found where you choose to travel. Remember that the snow lower in the gully could be different than the snow higher in terrain. Traveling on the old, firm, and textured snow surface will limit your likelihood of triggering an avalanche today. 

Avalanche Discussion

The continued mild temperatures forecast today will help promote bonding and the continued settlement of newly formed slabs. The wind slabs observed yesterday were predominantly unreactive, but there is the chance to find more reactive slabs in isolated and wind-protected terrain.  

The extreme winds yesterday limited some of the impacts of solar gain by keeping the surface cooler. Snow surfaces on solar aspects were softening, but there was no evidence of roller balls. Increasing cloud coverage likely limited continued solar gain into the afternoon, where a thin solar crust was observed.  

Potential Warming Today: Temperatures at mid and low elevation are forecast to rise to 28 F and 30 F. While skies are forecast to be overcast, there are clear skies forecast for the early morning when solar gain could be most productive. The lower winds will also be less productive at keeping snow surfaces cool. You will most likely see evidence of warming at low elevation, but you could find this in mid-elevation terrain as well. Signs of warming will be roller balls and wetting snow surfaces where it is easy to make a snowball. You could see small wet loose point releases if the snow becomes soft and wet enough. The size is expected to be small, but assess the consequences if it could cause a fall over ice bulges, cliffs, or into exposed rocks or trees.  This is most likely to happen on steep terrain underneath rocks or underneath your own feet. 

Outlook: Looking ahead, new snow could create new surface avalanche problems to be mindful of tomorrow. At this point, the probability of precipitation looks low, with around 1/2 an inch of snow likely to fall. Precipitation type may also be mixed, with the potential for both snow and sleet. If temperatures trend cooler with all precipitation falling as snow, totals may increase, which could increase the outlook for tomorrow’s avalanche hazard.

OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.

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