Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind drifts remain a concern in extreme alpine terrain where strong northeasterly winds continue to move snow around. Small patches of snow on steep, solar aspects below ridgelines and rock outcrops may soften to a point of instability as the day progresses. Additionally, be prepared for variable travel conditions and shedding rime ice from the upper mountain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today, winds will gradually shift clockwise, trending more to the northeast and east, decreasing in speed as the day progresses. Small drifts will be confined to steep slopes in complex terrain where blowing snow has had time to accumulate. Given the strong wind speeds, drifts may exist farther downslope than expected and will be largest and most sensitive on the leeward sides of terrain features—such as rock outcrops and cliff bands. Watch for where actively blowing snow is moving in relation to your terrain selection, and assess any lens-shaped surfaces you may encounter for shooting cracks. While drifts may be small, they can have large consequences in steep terrain.

    (1/7/2026)

    Northerly winds have been transporting moderate amounts of snow around on the upper mountain. Use caution if traveling in steep terrain where pockets of drifted snow may lurk in wind protected alcoves. 

    Photo: Christian Jordan

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Sunny skies with temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday are expected. As daytime warming occurs, watch for snow surfaces becoming damp or wet on steep (>35 degrees) solar aspects. Instabilities near and above treeline will be specific to wind-protected slopes under rocky terrain where more than a few inches of soft, recently drifted snow exist. Steep, micro-terrain features below treeline are other areas where wet snow instabilities are likely.

    Widespread surface crusts are expected to rebound quickly but not soften to a point of instability. If traveling beneath or above ridgelines with large, overhanging cornices, give them a wide berth and minimize your time spent below them. If you observe signs that surfaces are losing strength, such as fresh rollerballs or sinking into wet snow, seek mellower or shadier terrain.

    (3/6/2026)

    A patchwork of old wind deposits exists in depressions throughout the terrain. All other surfaces have been wind-scoured down to a smooth crust, which is setting up nicely for melt/freeze conditions near and beow treeline. 

    Photo: Eric Falconer

Avalanche Discussion

It's March, but the weather feels more like early May. These spring conditions were verified on a visit to Powder Bowl yesterday, with grade A corn developing on the wind-polished surfaces near and below treeline. Find out more HERE.

A winter defined by warm temperatures and high snow levels has left most terrain below 6,000 feet with a shallow, or non-existent, snowpack. Many creeks are running freely on the west side of the forecast area at Castle Lake and in the Eddy Mountains, which present a navigation hazard. Check out the recent observations for condition updates from around the area. Mount Shasta City remains above normal for water year precipitation (since October 1st).

Climbing: Despite the sunny weather in the forecast, it’s still winter high up on Mount Shasta. A winter ascent is significantly riskier than that of spring and requires a higher experience level. Extreme winds with frigid wind chills are forecast on the upper mountain today and through the work week. Expect variable snow surfaces and be prepared for icy, slide-for-life conditions. A full mountaineering kit is essential: 12-point crampons (NOT microspikes), ice axe, and helmet, and the skills to use them proficiently. See the full Climbing Advisory page for more details about climbing Mount Shasta. 

The final Know Before You Go and Rescue Clinics of the season are this weekend. We hope to see you there!

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