Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is LOW.  Conditions are generally stable. 

It may be possible to trigger a small, lingering wind slab on steep, upper-elevation slopes. 

Triggering large PERSISTENT SLAB avalanches failing near the ground is unlikely. If you were to encounter this problem, it would most likely be on steep, open, rocky slopes where the snowpack remains shallow.

The theme of clear skies, cold temperatures, and light winds looks to carry into the week ahead. 

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely, but avalanches can still be triggered on isolated features and in steep and extreme terrain. 

    Conditions are generally stable, and travel is safe. 

    Weak snow near the ground remains on our radar in parts of the forecast area, but it has become an increasingly isolated problem.

    Although we haven’t seen recent avalanches, snowpit tests still show the potential for propagation in mid and upper snowpack layers, as well as in weak, unconsolidated snow near the ground. A few skiers reported isolated instability in the top few inches of the upper snowpack last week. 

    The most likely places to encounter persistent slab instabilities are in steep, open, rocky slopes at upper-elevations where the snowpack is still relatively thin and shallow. 

    Additionally, on slopes that have remained exceptionally thin, last week's snow and wind may have formed fresh slabs over weak snow. In those spots, the problem may initially resemble a wind slab, but slides could break wider than you expect. 

    Overall, this concern is limited to thinner, rocky, wind-stiffened areas rather than the majority of terrain.

    Snowpit test results indicate that we still have a few layers of interest and the snowpack is by no means healed.

    The current paradigm of stability is less about structure and more about the length of the drought period of no new loads and stiff wind board armoring weak snow below. 

    Photo: Andy Paul

Avalanche Discussion

Forecast Discussion

It's only snowed about 5 inches in the last ten days. February has been a far cry from January, with only about two feet of snowfall this month. Conditions are currently cold, stale, and winded. Clear skies and surface faceting have helped soften the snow, but expect to find a variety of surfaces throughout the forecast area. 

The snowpack at Hatcher Pass continues to trend at mid-December numbers, with only 9.5'' SWE and a height of snow of 36'' as measured at the Independence Mine Snotel. Cold, clear conditions continue to slowly facet and loosen the snowpack, even as we move into March. With a relatively thin snowpack throughout the forecast area, this faceting is likely to be taking place deeper in the snowpack as well. Snowpack tests continue to yield propagating results on several layers in the snowpack, including the basal facets. While these results have not correlated to avalanches on the slope, they do indicate a possibility if and when we receive a load or the slab experiences a significant change. 

The most likely hazards at this time are slips or falls on steep, firm surfaces or musculoskeletal injuries due to variable snow surfaces--plan your tours accordingly. 

RECENT AVALANCHES:

Outside of some small, isolated pockets and test slopes, we've had no reports or observations of avalanches in about a week. We have not observed a persistent slab avalanche failing on weak snow near the ground since 1/31. See all recent observations here.

 

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