Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy snow and rain with strong easterly winds are expected to continue today. This will make for dangerous avalanche conditions with wet snow avalanche problems below 2500', and new snow avalanche problems including storm and wind slabs at higher elevations. Continued rain on snow below 2500' may also increase glide avalanche activity. We are expecting another action-packed day with weather and avalanches, and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Rain has been falling for two days now, and it is increasing the size and likelihood of wet snow avalanches. These can release naturally, and they may also be triggered by a person. If you decide to venture into the backcountry terrain, give steep slopes a wide berth and be aware of the possibility of avalanches releasing in steep overhead terrain.

    This may involve just a few inches of heavy, saturated snow near the surface, or it may begin to produce avalanches deeper in the snowpack- down to the wet layers that formed two weeks ago and still had not refrozen before this most recent round of stormy weather arrived. If we do get enough water to impact this deeper layer, there is a chance we could start to see much larger wet slab avalanches. Regardless of the specific type of wet snow avalanche we are seeing, it is likely all of this low- and mid-elevation rain has already started to make avalanches, and that will continue through the day.

    It has been a soggy few days since precipitation started Thursday afternoon. Here are the totals from Thursday through Sunday morning with estimated snowfall amounts above 2500'. The majority of this fell within the past 24 hours:

    • Girdwood: 2.3" water (6-10" snow)
    • Portage: 8.0" water (24-30" snow)
    • Turnagain Pass: 3.0" water (18-24" snow)
    • Summit Lake: 0.7" water (6-8" snow)
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 2.3" water (18-24" snow) 

    (12/19/2024)

    Wet snow avalanches will be very likely where rain is falling on the new and windblown snow from last week, and we may even see some impacting older wet layers deeper in the snowpack. Snowpit from Seattle Ridge.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    If you manage to get above the rain into new snow, it is very likely you will find dangerous conditions within the new and windblown snow from the past two days. Large avalanches failing in upper elevation start zones may run down into the lower elevations. This will make it even trickier to travel today since it will be difficult to see what is happening in those start zones. This is just one more reason to avoid avalanche terrain. New snow totals will likely be around 6 to 12" of heavy snow around 3000', but could be 1 to 2 feet of new snow at higher elevations. The intense winds from the past few days have been at work making touchy wind slabs, which are likely 2 to 4 feet deep and will continue to release naturally as the storm continues.

    (12/22/2024)

    Predicted precipitation totals, Sunday morning through Monday morning.

    Graphic: NWS Anchorage

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    With continued warm and wet weather, we are expecting to see more glide avalanches release. This is the same pattern we observed during the string of warm storms two weeks ago, and we have seen continued glide avalanche activity since then. The only way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling under active glide cracks. This will be difficult if not impossible if the slopes in question are hidden behind the clouds. This glide avalanche problem is just one more reason to avoid traveling in avalanche terrain today. In case you needed another one.

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