Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 13 – 14, 2018Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Highway 93 south of Jasper to Saskatchewan crossing and the Maligne road remain closed for avalanche control

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1.5–3
    Rising freezing levels and large triggers like smaller avalanches may wake up deeper slab instabilities

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5
    More shaded aspects and elevations above the freezing level.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2.5
    solar aspects and elevations below the freezing level

Weather Forecast

Strong high pressure with southern warm air will continue to Wednesday evening with freezing levels close to 3000m and strong solar effect throughout the forecast zone. Wednesday night/Thursday brings cloud cover and more seasonable temperatures with light flurries, a change that persists into the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Our structurally weak snowpack is slowly warming under spring-like temps and strong solar radiation. Settlement and sintering is occurring in the upper snowpack with warmer temps and melt-freeze crusts forming on steep solar slopes. Mid and lower snowpack weaknesses persist but tend to be reactive only on alpine solar facing slopes.

Avalanche Summary

Warm temps and rising freezing levels are resulting in loose dry avalanches at upper elevations and loose wet avalanches on solar slopes below treeline. Avalanches below treeline are to size 2. Alpine slopes have also released as slabs to midpack and have entrained snow up to size 2.5, but have potential to size 3.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Regions covered