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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2019–Mar 23rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Many recent loose wet avalanches have been entraining mass by gouging into the snowpack or triggering slabs and running much further than expected.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear skies / Light, westerly winds / Alpine low 0 C / Freezing level dropping to 2500 m.SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness in afternoon / Light, northerly winds / Alpine high 1 C / Freezing level dropping to 2000 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 mm. / Light, southeasterly winds / Alpine high -1 C / Freezing level 1500 m.MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, southwesterly winds / Alpine high 0 C / Freezing level 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Thursdays reports show continued skier triggered loose wet avalanches reaching size 1.5 on sun-exposed aspects. Check out this video of our South Rockies Field Team HERE.On Wednesday, several avalanches that began as loose wet point releases, then triggered small slabs which entrained or gouged out additional mass, significantly increasing the size and destructive potential of the avalanche.Expect the hazard to remain elevated until the clouds arrive and the temperatures cool.

Snowpack Summary

Upper snowpack: Getting warm and moist during the day, maybe forming weak crusts overnight that deteriorate during the day. On sunny aspects the upper snowpack has become increasingly isothermal (slushy and cohesionless) with successive days of warming. Mid-pack: The mid-snowpack consists of weak facets (sugary snow). Recent loose wet avalanches have been gouging into this faceted snow and entraining additional mass. Occasional slab fractures have also initiated above these facets.The lower snowpack has recently been reported to be strong in deep snowpack regions, but its strength is in doubt in shallow areas where the long, cold drought in February weakened the basal (bottom of the snowpack) layers. Some of the largest recent slab avalanches have initiated in shallow snowpack areas in the alpine.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.