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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2019–Mar 28th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Watch for new windslabs in alpine terrain from the recent snow. Clear skies are forecast on Thursday so watch for intense solar radiation and decreases in stability.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number and quality of field observations on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

The pulse of recent snow is beginning to end and we are moving into more of a clearing trend for the next few days. Temperatures are forecast to be around -10C overnight and then tomorrow warming up to around +5 with freezing levels around 2200m. Clear skies are forecast so be aware that as the sun comes out and solar radiation increases stability will decrease. These decreases are most apparent on steep solar aspects, especially in thin or rocky terrain. Pay attention to the aspect you are on/under and the time of day. Early starts are key at this time of year.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry avalanches on steep northern aspects were observed but no new slab avalanche activity. Observations were limited due to cloud cover and conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of snow has fallen over the past 48hrs with light occasional gusting into moderate SW winds. This new snow has fallen on top of a previous melt freeze crust that developed during last weeks heat wave. The main concerns at this time are isolated thin wildslabs in alpine terrain that are overlying the previous melt freeze crust as well as concerns associated with the deep persistent weak base. The freezing level on Wednesday climbed to 2200m with some moist snow being found below this elevation. Untracked areas at treeline and below are weak isothermal.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.