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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2019–Feb 28th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Persistent slab avalanche problems are tricky to manage. They tend to linger, waiting for a trigger. Check out the Forecasters' BLOG for further details on the conditions in the South Coast region.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Light snowfall amounts 5-10 cm overnight with light southwest winds. THURSDAY: New snow 5-10 cm by the end of the day. Ridgetop winds light from the East and treeline temperatures near -3. FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast and treeline temperatures near -3. Freezing levels 600 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast and treeline temperatures near -2. Freezing levels 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

As of Tuesday there have been no recent reports of avalanche activity. Last Monday, a fatal avalanche occurred on a steep feature at treeline elevation in the Mount Seymour backcountry (see here for incident report).

Snowpack Summary

The recent snow will likely have a poor bond to the older snow surfaces and loose dry avalanches may occur on steeper slopes and terrain features depending on accumulative amounts. Roughly 30 cm of snow from the weekend storm sits above a mix of sun crusts and possibly some weak faceted snow and surface hoar. Below this, a widespread crust layer is now buried 50-100 cm deep with weak snow above it. This deeper weak layer has produced large natural and human-triggered avalanches over the past week. The reactivity of this layer appears to be worse in the south of the region (i.e. the North Shore Mountains), since this part of the region saw more snow from recent storms and this storm snow consolidated into a stiffer slab. This problem is not typical for the region and we expect this layer to remain reactive for some time into the future. The lower snowpack is settled and strong.Please check out these MIN reports for more snowpack information:Near Mt. SeymourAST Course Mt. Seymour

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.