Avalanche forecast

Northwest Coastal

Feb 16 – 17, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Recent snowfall accumulations may be sensitive to human triggering, particularly in the north of the region or in higher, wind-exposed terrain.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    On Tuesday, the freezing level may reach 3000m. Forecast warming and sunny breaks will increase the likelihood of loose wet and wet slab avalanches. Wet avalanches can be pushy and entrain mass quickly.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

A dry ridge of high pressure will bring mainly clear skies for Tuesday. On Wednesday the ridge will flatten-out allowing for a weak pacific system to bring light snowfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Ridgetop winds are forecast to be moderate from the west on Tuesday, and then become strong and southwesterly with Wednesday's system. Freezing levels will shoot to about 3000m  on Tuesday, and then drop to about 1200m on Wednesday and Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. With forecast warming and solar radiation on Tuesday, I would expect a round of loose wet avalanche activity with potential for cornice falls and wet slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Generally light amounts of recent snowfall overlie a hard crust which extends to about 1800m. The recent accumulations may exist as a wind slab in high elevation lee terrain. The melt-freeze crust is adding considerable strength to the snowpack, although warming may weaken the crust allowing for surface avalanches to fail more easily. About 15 to 30cm below the surface you may find weak surface hoar which was buried on February 10th. Although recent warming may have destroyed this potentially weak layer in some areas, I'd dig down and test for this layer, especially at upper elevations where colder temperatures may have allowed for this weakness to persist. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled. Further north in the region, freezing levels are reported to have been lower during recent storms. In these areas deeper persistent weaknesses are more likely to exist.

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