Avoid all avalanche terrain on Thursday!
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Heavy snowfall transitioning to rain as freezing level rises to 1800 m by the morning, snow accumulations of 30-60 cm at higher elevations, strong wind from the southwest.THURSDAY: Heavy rain and/or snow with freezing level peaking around 1800 m in the morning then dropping to 1300 m throughout the day, possible accumulations of 40-80 cm at higher elevations and mix or rain and snow at treeline elevations, extreme wind from the southwest.FRIDAY: Another 30-50 cm of snow at higher elevations, freezing level steady around 1200 m, moderate to strong wind from the southwest.SATURDAY: Cloudy with some sunny breaks, light wind, alpine temperatures slightly below freezing in the morning and slightly above freezing in the afternoon.
Avalanche Summary
No avalanches have been reported in the past few days.
Snowpack Summary
Fresh storm slabs will form on Wednesday night and then get soaked with heavy rain on Thursday. The rising then dropping freezing level makes it hard to predict the rain/snow mix and the exact properties of the storm slabs throughout the day, but regardless, all the ingredients for dangerous avalanche conditions are there.The new snow is falling on a widespread crust that extends at least to 1500 m elevation. At the highest elevations in the north of the region near Squamish, there could be a weak layer of feathery surface hoar roughly 50 cm below the new snow. Otherwise, the lower snowpack is well-settled.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.