Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Overall, the avalanche danger is MODERATE,and human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow, and buried, persistent weak layers, are possible. The greatest likelihood for triggering an avalanche exists on steep, wind drifted, slopes, right around treeline and above, that face NW-NE-E. Thegreatest danger for avalanches involving buried persistent weak layers also exists on steep, northerly facing terrain, especially on rocky, radical, or sparsely treed slopes where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Slide paths that have already run, and then filled back in are also suspect. MODERATE danger does not imply little, or no danger, but rather that the problems are less widespread. It's important to remember that dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain a very real threat. And finally, as the day heats up, be alert to signs of wet snow instability on sun exposed slopes such as roller balls or pin wheels, and stay off of slopes that are getting wet and sloppy.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    As has been the case for several weeks now, wind drifted snow continues to be our primary concern. We may see a few shallow drifts for the recent southerly winds, but deep drifts from the last storm event will pack more of a punch. These drifts have formed on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features on slopes facing NW-N-E, primarily in upper elevation terrain, though some exposed mid elevation slopes are also susceptible. Most of these drifts have gained strength, but human triggered avalanches up to 3' deep are still possible. A triggered wind drift also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper, and even more dangerous avalanche. Continue to be wary if steep, wind drifted slopes recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    Natural avalanche activity from the last storm cycle, as well as a remotely triggered avalanche last week, demonstrate that a dangerous persistent weak layer problem still exists. The problem is becoming less widespread, but that perhaps makes it more insidious. Areas with a shallower snowpack are the most suspect and this includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Steep, rocky slopes facing N-NE-E have been the most active, but weak snow and poor test results are still being encountered on SE facing slopes. Careful snow stability analysis is essential, and the bottom line is that local observers and I are going to continue to avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees, especially those with a northerly aspect.

Recent Activity

We got a good look around in Gold Basin on Saturday and noted several large natural avalanches that had run during the storm. These slides were 3'-5' deep and appeared to be failing on a buried persistent weak layer. I also heard a report of natural activiy in Dory Canyon.

Snow and Weather

Clouds are moving into the area ahead of a weak disturbance that may bring a few scattered snow showers to the mountains later today. SW winds are averaging 20-25 mph along ridge tops and temps are in the low 20's. Winds will increase by about 10 mph today and we'll see gusts into the 40's. High temps will be near 30 degrees. The next system will bring a chance of snow Thu-Fri, with a better chance for snow coming on Sat-Sun.

I was out and about with Dustin Randall of ROAM Industry down in the Abajos yesterday. It was a beautiful spring-like day in the mountains with associated spring-like conditions. Last week's incredible 50" of snow has settled out considerably but trail breaking is still difficult through up to 2' of snow. The snow got very moist yesterday and S facing slopes are definitely crusted over. The same will be true for up here in the La Sals. Wind exposed slopes have sustained some damage, both from SW and NW winds, but soft snow can still be found in protected areas.

The most recent reports I have from the La Sal backcountry come from Chris Benson and Dave Garcia who were out on Sunday. The video below is from Saturday.

New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')

Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

National Weather Service point forecast.

Additional Info

Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

General Announcements

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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