Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Winds are picking up as the next frontal system approaches.

Expect fresh windslab and stormslab risks to be rising through Wednesday.

The avalanche danger will rise to considerable on the Divide and moderate elsewhere.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Expect to see continuing windslab develop as northerly winds increase. Snow pluming off ridge lines is a sure sign and direction to the building of windslab. If snow starts to feel stiff or drummy sounding then it might pay to alter plans.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    Heavy rain is expected below 2000m. Expect to see loose wet avalanching in many areas, especially on S aspects where there is dry cold snow. Avoid constricted gullies that might funnel snow from above.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A skier accidently triggered a size 1.5 windslab in the upper jollie valley on Tuesday. It was in freshly loaded snow as the NW wind picked up. Several storm slabs were observed to have run after Sundays snowfall, up to around size 2. Extensive roller balling was observed in warming on Monday afternoon.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Up to 50cm of snow fell in the north and west of the region over the weekend, tapering to the south and east. Winds were variable, and generally light. The new snow has bonded well to the older surface and warm temperatures on Monday left surfaces moist up to around 1500m, with extensive roller balling. Fresh reactive windslab was observed to have formed on SE aspects on Tuesday as NW winds increased. Windslab risks will increase over the next 24 hours as a frontal system approaches.

Mountain Weather

Forecast

Rain developing in the morning, heavier and more persistent in the afternoon with snow lowering to 2000 metres.

Wind at 1000 metres

Northeasterly 45 km/h, rising to gale 75 km/h in the morning.

Wind at 2000 metres

Northerly gale 80 km/h.

Wind at 3000 metres

Northerly gale 75 km/h, rising to severe gale 100 km/h for a time in the morning and afternoon.

Freezing level

1800 metres, lifting to 2300 metres in the afternoon.

Issued: 12:32pm Tue 11 Aug

Sliding Danger

Not much of a sliding danger at present. Snow is about to get wet below 2000m with incoming rain.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered