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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 22nd, 2019–Apr 23rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

It has been above freezing temperatures right to mountaintop for several days and nights now. Expect the snowpack to weaken rapidly with daytime warming and any amount of sun. If you are heading out, start your day early and end it early.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

MONDAY Night: Clear periods / moderate southwest winds / alpine high temperature 3 C, freezing level 2400 m

TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks / moderate west wind / alpine high temperature 6 C / freezing level 2500 m

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / light west wind / alpine high temperature 5 / freezing level 2300 m

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks / light to moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature 5 / freezing level 2400 m

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the region. There have been successive nights without the surface snow refreezing all the way to mountaintop. If the sun comes out for any length of time, expect loose wet avalanche activity to increase rapidly. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

In most places rain from Saturday has likely made the surface snow moist or wet except for the highest elevation alpine. If there has been a good overnight freeze, there may be a supportive crust on the surface. The mid and lower snowpack pack are likely a mixture of moist snow and crusts. Below treeline the snowpack has melted or is isothermal.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.