Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 6 – 7, 2016Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The layer of facets, decomposing stellars and surface hoar down 40-70cms making it very difficult to predict the sensitivity of the persistent slab with field tests. Progressive decision from low angle to steep terrain is key for safe riding.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Expect slab development immediate to lee ridge lines and cross loaded features. Bonding should be suspect, progress cautiously into steeper terrain.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Persistent weak layers of some combination of decomposed surface hoar, facets, and depth hoar in many locations. These layers have been stubborn to trigger underfoot but will be triggered by cornice failure or from shallow spot and release to ground.

Weather Forecast

Light scattered flurries throughout the weekend, up to 6 to 8cm by Sunday evening. Temperatures to remain cool above treeline and freezing levels rising to 2000ms over the day Sunday. Winds expected to be in the lower moderate range from the Southwest.

Snowpack Summary

Continued building wind slab in lee and cross-loaded terrain above 2000m. A persistent weakness down 40-70cm is stubborn but can be triggered underfoot, especially in shallow areas. Snowpack is facetted at lower elevations and the base is extremely weak. Large triggers such as cornice fall or other avalanches will likely trigger this weakness.

Avalanche Summary

Field reports of solar triggered slab avalanches in the alpine and treeline in wind loaded areas up to size 3 in the Maligne area. Scoured areas, beside loaded features are obvious and we can't stress enough diligent decision making and general avoidance of these weaker and shallow areas .

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Regions covered