Avalanche Forecast

Cloudier weather should be seen Wednesday with light winds and little change in cool temperatures. A few light showers are possible but most parts of the Olympics and Cascades should just end up with clouds.

These conditions should allow for further gradual decrease in avalanche danger as recent wind and storm slabs further settle and further stabilize. 

Recently formed wind slab should further stabilize on Wednesday. The recent report from Mt Hood Meadows indicates that wind slab is most likely on NE-E aspects. Watch for recent wind effects near and below ridgelines and avoid steep slopes with obvious signs of recent wind loading.

Storm slabs should become more unlikely and more stubborn to trigger Wednesday and will be removed as an avalanche problem.

It should be cloudier on Wednesday than the past couple days and further loose wet avalanches seem unlikely. Loose wet avalanches will not be listed as an avalanche problem. Watch for loose wet snow conditions on steep solar slopes if there is unexpected significant sunshine on Wednesday afternoon.

Weather and Snowpack

An arctic air mass was over the Northwest with fair, cold weather the 2nd week of January. Surface hoar and near surface faceted crystals formed in wind and sun-sheltered areas during this period. But recent observations seem to indicate that these crystals did not survive the atmospheric river that began on 1/17.

An atmospheric river moved over the Northwest about 1/17. Heavy rain was seen up to about 7000 feet at Mt. Hood. Three day precipitation totals through about Thursday were about 1.5 - 2 inches of water at the NWAC Timberline and Meadows stations. Light snow showers and cooler temperatures were seen Thursday. A frontal band rotating up from the south dropped about 6 inches of snow at Meadows and Timberline through 6 pm Friday with steady snow levels seen during the day.

Bands of showers moved across the Mt Hood area Saturday and Sunday depositing 7-8 inches more snow with further cooling and moderate winds.

Fair weather with light winds and cool temperatures has been seen Monday and Tuesday.

Recent Observations

The Mt Hood Meadows pro-patrol on Wednesday reported that rain penetrated about 10 inches into the snow with no results during avalanche control using explosives. Visibility was low on Wednesday, and it could not be determined if there had been any natural avalanches on the upper mountain.

Visibility remained poor on Thursday, but the Meadows pro-patrol reported wind slabs releasing on NE aspects well above treeline control work with explosives. Wind slabs became less reactive near tree-line and no avalanche activity or layers or concern was reported below treeline.

By Saturday the pro-patrol at Meadows were seeing very limited results as much of the recent wind slab problem had begun settling. At elevations below the recent wind loading, storm snow lacked cohesion and was providing nice conditions.

On Monday the pro-patrol at Meadows reported only pockets of stubborn wind slab above treeline on E slopes. This area had not been open or skied for 3 days so should be more representative of back country conditions.

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Timberline on Monday an on southeast slopes at about 6600 feet and found right side up settled snow and a good bond to the 1/17 crust. Shallow wind slab showed little tendency to propagate via ski tests.