Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Synopsis: A northwesterly flow will bring cool and unsettled weather for the next few days .Tonight: Cloudy with clear periods, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 300 metres, winds light, from the south west.Friday: Cloudy with flurries, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 600 metres, light ridge top winds from the north.Saturday: Cloudy with snow, 5 to 10cm of precipitation, freezing level dropping to around 300 metres, ridge top winds should be light from the south east.Sunday: Sunny with cloudy periods, No precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 900 metres, light ridge top winds from the east.

Reports from Wednesday speak of large ( size 2.5 and 3) avalanches, initiating in the storm snow and stepping down to the persistent weak layers. There are also reports of loose wet avalanches on steep solar aspects. With rising freezing levels and spring sunshine, solar aspects may become quite active. Cornices have become quite large in some parts of the forecast region. They are definitely something to watch out for.

50 to 75 cm of recent storm snow that arrived with strong winds has built more wind slabs at tree line and above, increasing the depth of the storm slab that now overlies the March persistent weak layer. In addition, the recent storm snow has fallen on a melt freeze and/or rain crusts that exist in most parts of the region below 1200 metres. This will most likely become reactive on solar aspects when the sun finally comes out.The March weak layer is a combination of hard wind-scoured slab surfaces in exposed terrain, facets and/or surface hoar in sheltered and north aspects, and sun crust on steep solar aspects and is widespread throughout the forecast region. This layer is now buried well over a metre in most parts of the region. A late January/early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is still showing up in snowpack tests with moderate to hard shear tests. This layer will be with us for a long time, and a slide triggered on this layer would be very large and destructive. Recent warming temperatures will be good for bonding on this layer, but a sudden increase in load, or a large rainfall event could "wake up" this layer and result in very large avalanches.