Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2017–Feb 9th, 2017

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

When the snow first turns to rain a widespread natural avalanche cycle will likely ensue for a short period of time.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: 25-30 mm water / Strong, southwesterly winds/ Freezing level rising to 2000 m by Thursday morning.Thursday: 35-40 mm rain / Strong to extreme, southwesterly winds / Freezing level around 2000 m.Friday: 10-15 mm rain / Moderate to strong, southwesterly winds / Freezing level dropping to around 800 m.Saturday: Mostly cloudy / Moderate, southwesterly winds/ Freezing level around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

The rain on snow event that is forecast for early Thursday morning is expected to trigger a widespread natural avalanche cycle for a short period of time at treeline and below. In the alpine, where the precipitation is forecast to fall as snow, danger is expected to remain High throughout the day.

Snowpack Summary

50-80 cm of recent storm snow is sitting on a knife hard crust. The bond to this crust is slowly gaining strength according to recent reports. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth at treeline 250-300 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Thursday's storm is starting cold and ending warm. This creates a dangerous condition where warmer heavy snow is sitting on-top colder snow, making storm slab avalanches much more likely.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wet Slabs

When the snow first turns to rain a widespread natural avalanche cycle will likely ensue for a short period of time.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

When the snow first turns to rain a widespread natural avalanche cycle will likely ensue for a short period of time.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2