Avalanche Forecast

A weak storm system is expected to reach the coast Monday overnight. 5-15cm of snowfall is forecast with the greatest amounts along the coast. Strong southerly winds are expected in the alpine with afternoon freezing levels around 1300m. Light snowfall may continue Tuesday overnight and should be done by Wednesday morning. A mix of sun and cloud is forecast for Wednesday with light alpine wind and afternoon freezing levels around 1400m. Thursday is forecast to be mainly cloudy with sunny breaks, light alpine wind, and afternoon freezing levels around 1500m.

On Sunday afternoon, loose wet avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the north of the region.  With the arrival of spring, field observations and data have become quite limited in the region. A lack of avalanche reports does not mean avalanches are not occurring.  On Tuesday, new wind slabs are expected to form in the alpine. Cornices have been weak recently and may fail naturally with storm loading. Loose wet avalanches are possible at lower elevations that see rainfall.

Dry winter snow is being reported on northern aspects above 1700m in the area north of Stewart. South aspect slopes and lower elevations are most likely undergoing daily melt-freeze cycles. Around Terrace, melt-freeze conditions are being reported at all elevations. Surface crusts are forming overnight and breaking down during the day. The snowpack's strength is directly related to the thickness and strength of these crusts. Where layers remain in the snowpack, they are generally bonding. A widespread crust/facet layer from early February and depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack (primarily in northerly & inland areas) are dormant. Cycles of melting and refreezing have limited the reactivity of these old layers. However these layers, or the ground, could potentially once again be the layer for an isolated yet large avalanche with prolonged periods of warming.