Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Wednesday will be a transitional day for the snowpack as snow showers end and the sun comes out. That means you’ll need to balance changing conditions during the day. Avoid slopes greater than 35 degrees where you see signs that the wind affected the snow. As the sun appears, lookout! You may see natural loose avalanches failing on steep sunny slopes.
Discussion
Snow and Avalanche Discussion
The snowpack will be in a period of transition Wednesday as the sun comes out, temperatures warm, and the storm exits the region. Expect conditions to change quickly this time of year. The slopes you travel in the morning may be very different from midday.
This storm accumulated less significant new snow in the Hurricane Ridge area than the adjacent West-Cascade zones, but one of the big take-home points were the winds. Moderate to strong winds likely reshaped the snowpack, especially at mid and upper elevations.
The recent snow may have buried surface hoar, facets, and/or firm crust in some areas. If you find a wind slab over these older surfaces you may see avalanche fail in unusual ways including remote triggering, wide propagation, or failing on slopes close to 30 degrees. If you see any unusual observations, dial back your travel and stay out of nearby avalanche start zones.
During the spring, steer clear of traveling on or below cornices, especially during periods of extended sun breaks.
Forecast schedule
For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays.
During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice. While this avalanche forecast is focused on backcountry avalanche conditions expected in the Hurricane Ridge area, we want to hear about your observations from other parts of the Olympics as well.
Snowpack Discussion
March 10, 2019
February started stormy and cold with very active avalanche conditions on persistent weak layers. The month finished with continued cold temperatures but drier weather allowed avalanche activity to taper off. Persistent weak layers that were buried early in the month (Feb 8th) are now unreactive, though you can still find the grains.
Aside from the series of storms in early to mid-February, most regions have measured relatively light snow accumulation in the past 3 weeks. Snow has stayed soft especially on shaded slopes and faceting and surface hoar have been plentiful. While there has been plenty of sunshine since mid-February, very cold temperatures have kept melt-freeze crust to a minimum on sunny slopes.
A natural loose wet avalanche (D1.5) on a southeast aspect of Lichtenberg Mtn at 5,400ft. 3/10/2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg
Recent Avalanches
Our attention shifted to the upper snowpack. Recent avalanche problems have largely focussed on wind transported snow and weak snow surfaces on both dry, shaded slopes and sun-exposed aspects. In some locations, a weak layer of surface hoar and facets was buried on March 6th. We’ll keep an eye on this interface as we move into the future.
A skier-triggered storm slab avalanche (D1.5) on Shuksan Arm, north aspect, 5200ft. 03/09/19 Adam U Photo.Â
Moving Forward
As we move further into March, there are two points to consider:
-
The strength of the March sun: As the sun creeps higher into the sky and the days grow longer, the sun can have a greater impact on the snow surface. When the sun comes out, expect things to change quickly. You may see avalanches conditions change with natural loose avalanches originating from sunny slopes, surface snow becoming thick and heavy, and slabs taking on a moist to wet snow character.
-
Weak surfaces: facets and surface hoar have blanketed snow surfaces in many zones. Any significant snowfall will bury well-developed and widespread persistent weak layers. Recently, most storms have not delivered enough precipitation to cause a problem.