Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Friday night: No precipitation expected. Moderate to strong winds at mountain/ridge top from the north. Light from the north near valley bottom. Temperatures rising to -10 or so overnight.

Saturday: No precipitation expected. Light to moderate northerly winds at upper elevations. Light and variable lower down. Temperatures continue to climb reaching -3ish in the afternoon. Clear skies with lots of sun.

Sunday: No precipitation expected. Light to moderate north to northeast winds at upper elevations. Light and variable lower down. Temperatures steady around -3 to - 5. Sunny.

Monday: No precipitation expected. Light to moderate north to northeast winds at upper elevations. Light and variable below. An above freezing layer or inversion with temperatures reaching near zero in the alpine is possible. A few degrees cooler at lower elevations. Clear and sunny. 

An avalanche cycle associated with new snow and wind occurred earlier in the week. Naturally triggered avalanches up to size two were obseerved up to about 24 hours ago.

In the last 24 hours, avalanche activity has more or less stopped as the storm related slabs settle and cold temperatures lock up the snowpack.

If the weather forecast is right and a warming trend occurs, it's expected that lingering windslabs will become reactivated over the next few days. Loose wet avalanches might become a concern Sunday and Monday afternoon especially in areas sheltered from wind and where the snowpack is shallow.. 

Up to about 30cm of recent storm snow from earlier in the week has been blown around by moderate to strong winds in most parts of the region. These winds were variable in direction from south and southwest to northerly. This created wind slabs and cornice buildup on most aspects at all elevations. The slabs were reactive during and shortly after the storm. Reactivity has decreased in the last 24 hours or so. That might well change if the weather forecast is right and the snowpack warms over the next few days due to rising temperatures and ongoing solar radiation coupled with light winds.

At lower elevations there's still some storm snow that's not been smashed by wind but this seems to be the exception rather than the rule. 

Where the snowpack is deep (e.g. 200cm or more) there's no significant or notable instabilities lurking deeper in the pack. In shallow spots or shallower parts of the region (e.g. farther inland) sugary snow (facets and maybe even depth hoar) at or near the base of the pack are less well bridged but are not yet a significant concern.

Warm temperatures and solar radiation could create moist or wet surface snow especially late in the day Sunday and Monday.

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
• Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.