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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2013–Dec 16th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

We are near the tipping point of an increase in avalanche danger.  When the new snow does arrive, we can expect avalanche danger in Alpine terrain to approach considerable. 

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A trace of new snow is expected overnight and only about 5cm throughout the day on Monday. Winds are still expected to be strong out of the SW.  Temps will average -10C at 2800m.

Avalanche Summary

Report into the office yesterday of a skier accidental avalanche on a NE aspect at 2200m near Heros Knob.  Slab a sz 2 that was 30cm deep.  Other details were sketchy regarding length and width of the avalanche.  Lots of loose spindrift pouring out of steeper terrain as a result of the winds.

Snowpack Summary

Little change.  The few cms of new snow that has fallen is either blowing away, or building thin storm slabs along ridgelines.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Pockets of wind slabs can still be found in the Alpine and selected areas at Treeline. Any avalanche that is triggered will likely fail on the basal October crust (or the ground) and involve the entire winters snowpack.
Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

Thin new storm slabs are building in immediate lees along ridgelines.  Use caution on N and E aspects.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2