Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2016–Mar 2nd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Widespread windslab exists throughout the Park.  This layer is touchy, especially in unsupported terrain.

Weather Forecast

A series of storms will bring precip to Rogers Pass through the week.  Some models show up to 40 cm of accumulated snow by Sunday!  Today will be cloudy with 4cms of snow expected.  Freezing level will be at 1500m, with alpine highs of -2 deg and southeast ridge winds 10-30 kph. 

Snowpack Summary

Previous Strong South winds have blown around our 22cm of new snow creating wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline. 30cm of storm snow is poorly bonded to a variable crust on SE through W aspects and widespread surface hoar/stellars on shaded aspects.The February 10th surface hoar/sun crust is down 50-90cm and is becoming less reactive.

Avalanche Summary

New snow and strong winds yesterday kicked off a natural avalanche cycle to sz 2.5 mostly from very steep start zones. We've received reports of 4 skier triggered avalanches in the few couple of days:  Windslabs in the Asulkan, Connaught & Loop Valleys from unsupported terrain and a sz 1 in Balu Pass, failing down 10 on the Feb 27 surface hoar.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Yesterdays moderate, gusting to extreme S winds created windslabs on all aspects at TL and above. This slab has the potential to run far on a supportive crust below and/or if the Feb 27 SH gets involved. Cornices are ripe aswell, give them wide berth
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

30cm of storm snow sits on a strong crust and surface hoar which is poorly bonded in some locations. Field teams experienced whumphing on this layer yesterday. This low density slab has potential to gain alot of mass with a crust as the bed surface
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3