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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 4th, 2012–Dec 5th, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

High winds and lots of new snow over the last few days, combined with forecast strong winds for today, have contributed to avalanche conditions. Expect natural avalanches today.

Weather Forecast

Moderate snowfall and strong winds are in the weather forcast for this area today and tonight and then both the wind and snowfall should ease to light wind and flurries for Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

A 70cm storm slab from a layer buried Nov. 28 is becoming increasingly cohesive due to moderate to strong winds. The Nov 6 crust may become reactive with increasing load.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday an avalanche cycle occurred during a period of intense wind and snowfall. 6 size 3, and 13 size 2-2.5 natural avalanches were observed from steep paths adjacent to the highway, east of the Summit.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong S-SW winds have loaded lee slopes, triggering natural avalanches in steep terrain. Expect touchy loaded pockets, and soft windslabs on lee slopes. Strong forcast winds will enhance this problem.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Storm Slabs

We've received 70cm of snow in the past 4 days. This soft slab will be most reactive where it buried surface hoar or sun-crust. We expect more snow and strong winds today, which may overload these layers resulting in natural avalanches.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard.Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Nov 6 crust complex has yet to wake up. While the likelihood of triggering is low, it will produce large avalanches. As the load on this layer increases, it may become reactive. Smaller avalanches may step down to this deeper layer.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4