Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 29th, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

Chris Gooliaff,

Glacier.

With another massive dump and warming temps coming our way, we will be in an elevated danger rating for the next few days.

Natural and human triggered avalanches are very likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Summary

Weather Forecast

We are forecast to get ~90mm of warm moisture between now and Thurs.

Tonight: Snow, 15cm, FZL 1500m, mod / gusting strong SW winds

Tues: Snow, 25cm, FZL 1700m, mod/strong SW winds

Wed: Snow, 40cm, FZL 1900m, strong / gusting extreme SW winds

Thurs: Snow, 15cm, FZL 1400m, light / gusting strong W winds

Fri: Isolated flurries, FZL 500m, light winds

Snowpack Summary

Over 1m thick, heavy storm slabs are widespread at all elevations. The mid and lower snowpack is generally rounded and well bonded. Below 1900m the November 15th crust exists in the mid-snowpack. Early season hazards have been freshly buried below 1700m, slide over the lumps and bumps with caution.

Avalanche Summary

Calmer weather Monday has brought a lull in the natural avalanche action, but the next storm is knocking at the door and natural activity will certainly resume Tues/Wed.

Artillery avalanche control Sun am saw numerous sz 3-3.5 avalanches run to valley bottom. Natural avalanche activity to sz 3 was widespread the last 3 days.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Rapid snow loading, rising temps, and strong SW winds will add more load to the existing 1+m thick storm slabs.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3.5

Loose Dry

As the new snow piles up, expect touchy loose dry avalanches in steeper terrain. These can be especially problematic in / above terrain traps

Be careful of loose dry sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 30th, 2021 4:00PM