Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region. Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Active weather brings light to moderate snow across the region with increasing winds and warmer temperatures. Higher precipitation amounts and freezing levels forecast for southern region.

Friday night: Mainly cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries, trace to 2 cm new snow, light to moderate southwest ridge wind and alpine low temperature around -11C.

Saturday: Cloudy with clear breaks and isolated flurries, trace to 5 cm of new snow, moderate southwest ridge wind and alpine high temperatures around -7C. Late afternoon, wind will increase to strong as a warm front arrives and snow flurries will grow heavier with an additional 5 to 10 cm forecast overnight.  

Sunday: Cloudy with snow, 5-15 cm of new snow, light south ridge wind gusting strong in the alpine, alpine high temperatures around -5C and freezing levels 800 m - 1000 m.

Monday: Heavy snow, 10-25 cm of new snow, light south ridge wind gusting strong, alpine high temperatures around -4C and freezing levels 700 m - 1400 m.

Minimal new avalanches have been reported on Friday, although data sources are limited. A MIN from near Kicking Horse reported that wind slabs were developing in lee deposition zones at treeline on northeast aspects as evidenced by a skier triggered small avalanche (size 1.5) that was 30cm deep and ran for 300 m. This is a great "heads up", they suggest, for what will happen on Saturday as winds increase.

On Thursday in the Golden area, about 10 cm of new snow coupled with easterly wind led to the formation of small but reactive new wind slabs and cornice growth. Farther south from the mountains east of Kimberlyl this MIN reports 20-30 cm of new snow that rested on a firm wind/sun crust. We're still lacking observations from elsewhere in the region, but it's safe to assume similar, if not more dangerous conditions exist in other areas with similar or greater new snow accumulations.

We're continuing to track a layer of surface hoar from early January. Two MIN reports (MIN report 1; MIN report 2) from north of the region in Hope Creek report human-triggered slab activity from January 20. This MIN report from the Quartz zone (from Jan 14) shows a reactive layer of Jan 11th surface hoar on north-facing slopes near treeline. Concern for this layer is increasing in line with loading from new snow and increased avalanche activity in shallower snowpack layers.

15 to 30 cm of new snow accumulated in the region by Friday, with heavier amounts the higher western mountains. This new snow has buried a variety of surfaces including a surface hoar layer, a thin sun crust on steep solar, scoured and pressed surfaces in exposed terrain as well as more variable wind affected and faceted snow in sheltered terrain. The buried a layer surface hoar was reported as widespread in sheltered areas in the alpine and treeline and widespread below treeline. 

A second weak of layer of surface hoar and / or a thin melt crust from Jan 11th is down 30-70cm. In recent snowpack tests at treeline elevations near Golden this layer produced sudden results. This persistent weak layer is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at treeline and warrants slope-specific investigation if you're travelling in the north of the region. Concern for this problem increases with additional snow and warm temps, particularly since a smaller avalanche may step down to this layer, especially in shallower snowpack layers.

Two deeper layers remain on our radar, though they have been recently unreactive. Down 100-150 cm lies the December weak layers, which is consists of a combination of 2 different decomposing surface hoar layers, a crust and faceted snow. Near the grounds a notable rain crust from early November that is surrounded by a weak layer of sugary facets. Though unlikely to trigger, caution for these layers remains with large loads in steep, shallow, rocky areas with a thin to thick snowpack. There is also concern for these layers in isolated below treeline locations.

• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
• Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
• Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.