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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 19th, 2016–Jan 20th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Purcells.

Variable conditions across the Purcells. Areas with deep recent storm snow accumulations may have higher avalanche danger.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Light amounts of snow are expected this week. Wed: 5-10 cm, mostly in the south; and cool with light winds. Thursday: flurries, freezing level rising to 1500 m, with moderate to strong SW winds. Friday: Flurries, freezing level around 1300 m, moderate SW winds. For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, several small slabs were triggered by skiers, including three that were remotely triggered. These were either on wind-loaded features at and above treeline, or in openings at low elevations, where buried surface hoar is largest and most reactive. These events suggest that there is a very touchy interface, but in general there is not enough load above it to create destructive avalanches. This situation could very quickly evolve and become dangerous, so watch for any areas with increased loading from wind or snow, and be alert if temperature changes cause the slab to become more cohesive.

Snowpack Summary

Conditions are variable across the Purcells. Isolated wind slabs are lurking behind ridges and ribs. 15-40 cm of recent storm snow overlies a mix of surface hoar, facets, and sun crusts that were buried in early January. In many parts of the Purcells, there is not yet a cohesive slab above this interface, apart from in wind-affected areas. In the far west of the region, there may be a deeper and more consolidated slab over the touchy early January interface. Operators are still keeping an eye on a more deeply buried layer of surface hoar from December, which is now considered dormant or unreactive. In general, the mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs may be lurking behind ridges and ribs. They may be extra sensitive where they overlie a buried sun crust.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

With each successive snowfall, a slab is slowly forming above a touchy buried weakness. This could be triggered by the weight of a person, even from a distance.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be aware of the potential for remote triggers and wide propagations.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2