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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2016–Mar 14th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Olympics.

Conditions are a bit hard to predict following the low pressure system on Monday. Conservative decision making will be a good plan until the avalanche forecasts get refined after new information becomes available on Monday.

Detailed Forecast

Another 5-10 inches of new snow seems likely at Hurricane by Monday morning.

West winds aloft and a cool slightly unstable air mass should be seen over the Northwest on Monday. This should cause snow showers and up to a few more inches of snow seems likely at Hurricane by the end of the day.

New wind and storm slab seem likely to be the main avalanche problems at Hurricane.

New wind slab is mostly likely to be found on northwest to southeast slopes. Firmer wind transported snow and snowpack cracking can be good signs of wind slab.

New storm slab is likely in areas where new snow rapidly accumulates for more than several hours.

Cloudy cool conditions on Monday may limit the development of loose wet snow but the sun is gaining power so watch for the development of loose wet snow on solar slopes.

Conditions are a bit hard to predict following the low pressure system and front on Monday. The avalanche danger may decrease a little on Monday due to a little less wind, some stabilizing of new snow and fairly cool temperatures. This forecast will take a conservative approach to the danger levels and the avalanche forecasts will get refined after new information becomes available on Monday.

 

 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

Storms have moved across the Northwest almost every day or two the past couple weeks with fluctuating but generally moderate snow levels.

A storm last Wednesday and Thursday caused a warming trend that peaked Wednesday night with very strong west winds. About 10 inches of new snow was reported by the Hurricane ranger for the 4 days ending on Saturday morning.

A front on Saturday caused west-southwest winds and likely up to another 5 inches or so of snow at Hurricane ending Sunday morning.

A deep surface low pressure system is moving across the Olympic Peninsula and causing stormy weather at Hurricane on Sunday.

The mid and lower snow pack in the Olympics should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald toured around the Hurricane Ridge area Friday. He found up to 20 cm of dense 1 F or P snow above the latest rain crust. Thin wind slab was generally not reactive except in isolated areas on N-NW lee aspects near treeline. Although cornices were large, they were generally firm and not sensitive. Matt observed evidence of a widespread natural cycle involving shallow slabs on northerly lee aspects that likely occurred Wednesday night during warming and a transition to rain. Windward slopes that had melted out a few weeks earlier had packed on a firm and in places icy thin cover. Overall Matt noted few current avalanche problems in the Hurricane Ridge area Friday.   

Hurricane Weather Station

Internet communications to the station have been disrupted at the NWAC office. We have identified the problem but unfortunately our hardware will not be repaired until early next week. We apologize for the outage and are working to get the station back up ASAP. 

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Aspects: South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1