Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 2nd, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
Mikey,
Avalanche Canada
Avoid large open alpine terrain and overhead hazard. Best to stay on low angled and well supported terrain. The snowpack is weak and there is the potential to trigger avalanches from below.
Summary
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
A size 1 slab occurred in the last 24 hours on a NE aspect on Mt. Black Prince near 2600m. There have been several skier involved avalanches West of our region in the last week but with a similar snow pack to us. Check out the MIN on avalanche.ca
Snowpack Summary
This a hard snowpack description to write. It is hard to convey the seriousness of a snowpack in a short written description. We are essentially sitting on a house of cards known as the Nov 25 depth hoar layer. In a nutshell, the lower third of our snowpack is the worst we've seen in a very long time. It is a 30-40cm thick layer of rotten sugar snow. It's bad, and its everywhere. The upper 2/3 of the snow pack is slightly denser snow made up of several layers. Within this denser snow we have another persistent layer we know locally as the Dec 17th surface hoar. While not as bad as the Nov 25, this layer is also reacting in tests as it's only down 20-30cm. We have noted a fair bit of regional variability in the depths of these layers layers, be sure to dig and locate them in your terrain of choice. The forecasters are approaching all terrain conservatively and do not have much confidence in the snow pack.
Weather Summary
A high pressure system has settled into the region with mostly clear skies and no snow. Temperatures will range from -17c in the morning and warm up to -6c by mid day. Winds are forecast to be Light from the South.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
This layer is easy to trigger from thin, weak shallow areas. Forecasters are easily producing whumpfing in thin snowpack areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
If triggered the wind slab is very likely to steep down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2023 4:00PM
