Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
An overnight refreeze, followed by clouds and cooling winds should limit the danger on Monday. Monitor surface snow conditions, especially if surface snow is becoming wet more than the top inch or two. Identify and avoid locations where avalanches may be more likely to trigger, such as steep convex rolls and near rocks.
Detailed Forecast
Mostly clear skies followed by increasing high clouds Sunday night should allow for the surface snow to again for a crust, though likely not supportable.
Increasing clouds and moderate south winds and warm temperatures are expected during the day Monday. This should allow for slowly weakening surface snow, however wind and clouds should limit the surface snow melt to just a few inches at most.
This should maintain mostly stable snow and a generally low avalanche danger.
Remember a low danger does not mean no danger. Continue to watch for local unstable snow conditions, especially if surface snow is becoming wet more than a few inches.
Winds slabs have been removed from the problem list as they have been stabilizing over the past few days under warm temperatures. However, watch for any lingering wind slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations.
The recent skier triggered avalanche Saturday is a reminder that triggered avalanches are still possible. The upper snowpack is gaining strength, but this takes time. Identify and avoid areas in the terrain where avalanches are more likely to be triggered such as convex rolls, below cliffs, and shallow spots within the snowpack.
Despite the recent snow, early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.
Snowpack Discussion
Clear skies Saturday night allowed for a moist upper snow pack to re-freeze, forming a breakable surface crust by Sunday morning.
Sunshine and very mild temperatures into the mid 50's with light southerly winds were recorded at Hurricane Ridge Sunday.Â
Shallow wet surface snow during the afternoon has maintained the possibility of small wet snow avalanches, mainly on very steep sun exposed slopes.Â
Warm temperatures and sunshine both Saturday and Sunday have allowed wind slabs formed during Thursday's storm to stabilize.
About of foot of storm snow from Thursday has continued to settle and stabilize and is bonding to the most recent rain crust. Below this rain crust, no notable layers of concern have been identified within the snowpack.
The height of snow across the terrain is quite variable with little snow in many areas below treeline. Numerous obstacles still exist at all elevations.
Observations
NPS rangers reported a skier triggered avalanche from the Hurricane Ridge area Saturday morning. The avalanche occurred as the skier was traversing across a steep convex rollover locally known as Avalanche Run near Poma Bowl (SW aspect around 5300 feet). The avalanche was estimated to be 12 inches deep, about 100 feet wide, and ran down slope for 300-400 feet. The skier was caught and carried but did not sustain any injuries.
Skier triggered wet snow avalanche 1/13, releasing on traverse (upper right). photo: NPS ranger
A separate natural, loose-wet avalanche occurred on Saturday in a known avalanche path named 20th of June. The avalanche occurred around 10am and ran for 300-400’.
Rangers also noted several glide cracks on steep smooth rock slabs.
NWAC pro-observer, Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on Thursday 1/11. Matt found despite the significant storm snow, below the treeline elevation band had quite variable snow cover. Winds actively transported new snow near and especially above treeline, but the loading pattern was variable.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1