Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2017–Dec 19th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Heavy snowfall and strong winds will have created a new slab.  Dig down and assess the bond of the new snow to the old surface.

Weather Forecast

Today the snowfall will taper but it will remain mainly cloudy. Freezing level will stay at 800m and wind will be from the west at 20-35kph.  Tuesday we can expect another 10cm of snow throughout the day & overnight period.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of new snow fell in the last 24hrs with mod gusting strong winds redistributing the snow in the Alpine. This brings the storm total to ~40cm on the Dec 15 layer, which is a layer of concern. It's widespread and LARGE surface hoar at treeline and can be found in the alpine in sheltered terrain. The new snow also buries crusts on S & W aspects.

Avalanche Summary

A recent report came in of a skier triggered sz 1 storm slab on the fan of Cheops North 5. It propagated 50m wide and was up to 30 cm deep. Expect to see more avalanches like this but larger as we get more snow or the new settles into a slab on the Dec 15th surface hoar. A natural cycle  to sz 2 was observed from steep slide paths.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

After a long dry spell, 40cm of new snow has fallen on widespread surface hoar.  As this new snow settles into a cohesive slab, expect to see it become more reactive.  SW winds in the 30-45kph range have built windslab in the alpine.
Use caution in alpine and open treeline lees. Recent snowfall has created storm slabs.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3