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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 3rd, 2013–Feb 4th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Monday: Strong Westerly winds with 5-10 cms of snow and alpine temperatures down to -8.0. A few cms during the day with gusty Northwest winds and freezing levels rising to about 900 metres.Tuesday: A warm pulse of moisture is expected to bring 10-15 cms to elevations above 1000 metres with strong Southwest winds.Wednesday: Strong Westerly winds and flurries. Freezing level up to 1100 metres during the day.

Avalanche Summary

The sun caused a natural cycle of loose and slab avalanches up size 2.0 that were mostly started in very steep un-skiable terrain. Wind slabs also continued to release naturally or were triggered by skiers. The West Monashee continued to be the most reactive area reported, with natural avalanches up to size 3.5 that were releasing in the recent storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs continue to develop in the alpine and at treeline. A sun crust has developed on steep Southerly aspects, and a melt-freeze crust has developed at lower elevations due to the recent high freezing levels. The recent storm slab continues to be reactive at treeline and below on steep convex slopes that have buried surface hoar at the January 23rd interface (between 40-60 cms down). The mid-pack is well settled and strong. There are a few locations that continue to find a well preserved surface hoar layer from early January that is buried down about 90 cms. Forecast cooler temperatures should help to strengthen the recent storm slab where it became moist at lower elevations.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Old wind slabs are expected to continue to be triggered by light additional loads. New wind slabs are expected to build during the next pulse of moisture.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The recent storm slab continues to be reactive above variable sliding surfaces.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5