Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Strong southwest winds overnight combined with 10-15 cm of new snow and freezing levels around 1200 metres. Strong southwest winds on Wednesday with another 5-8 cm of new snow and freezing levels around 1400 metres. Light winds on Thursday with a chance of broken skies and freezing levels dropping to 700 metres. Mix of sun and cloud on Friday with light winds and freezing levels at valley bottoms.

A person walking at 600 metres elevation triggered a wind slab avalanche 100 cm deep and 20 metres wide on a smooth north aspect that released a size 2.0 avalanche burying one person with just their hand exposed. The person was rescued by their companion. This happened in the Selkirks between Sale Mtn and Keystone Basin. Conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight as a new storm moves into the region and storm slabs continue to develop. I expect this will result in a direct action cycle of storm slab avalanches. As the load increases over the next few days we will be looking closely at recent persistent weak layers and discussing the likelihood of these layers failing under the new load of storm snow combined with wind and warm temperatures.

Storm snow continues to develop storm slabs on all aspects and at all elevations. These new storm slabs are sitting on variable old surfaces that include surface hoar, and hard wind slabs. Before the storm, recent cold and clear weather had promoted both faceting of surface snow as well as the growth of surface hoar that has been reported to be up to 10mm in size in protected areas. Below this surface, our recent new snow was shifted first by southwesterly winds and then by northerly winds. As a result, wind slabs exist on a variety of aspects at upper elevations. These accumulations have covered old, thicker wind slabs from previous wind events. A layer of faceted "sugar snow" and spotty surface hoar which formed during December's cold snap now lies roughly 1 metre below the surface. This layer is now dormant in many areas, but may still be a concern in shallow snowpack parts of the region, particularly around Clemina Creek. I'd continue to investigate this layer before committing to any large, unsupported features. The lower snowpack seems to be generally strong and well settled.