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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2017–Jan 16th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

The snow may feel stable below your skis, but what you don't feel are the deeper weak layers in bottom half of the snowpack.  It is unclear whether a very large natural avalanche on Friday was an isolated occurrence - use caution in open terrain.

Weather Forecast

Sun dominates the forecast, as warm dry air aloft floods in from the West.  Expect Chinook conditions: Strong Westerly winds and warm temps in the front ranges / Cooler with more Moderate winds near the divide. A strong temperature inversion will keep Alpine temps 5 degrees warmer than at Treeline. On Monday, Alpine temps may be above freezing. 

Snowpack Summary

Soft snow exists in sheltered areas, but has been stripped off or blown into Wind Slabs in open areas, especially in the Front Ranges.  A layer of facets in the middle of the snowpack seems to be slowly strengthening. Meanwhile, recent load from snow and wind may have awakened a weakening November Crust near the bottom of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A Very Large (Size 3) Deep Persistent slab avalanche was observed in Alpine terrain on Friday, at 2250m on a North aspect.  A small Wind Slab stepped down in a thin area, to a layer near the bottom of the snowpack.  This propagated widely, upto 2 meters deep across a thicker slope. A Few other small Wind Slabs were observed in the Alpine.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.