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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2012–Jan 26th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night's storm should deliver 15 - 20 cm of snow by Wednesday morning with the western side of the region picking up the larger amount. The forecast is still calling for big winds in excess of 100 km/h Tuesday night into Wednesday. The freezing level should hover around 1300 m Wednesday with temperatures at 1500 m clocking in at -2. A weak storm system moves into the area Thursday morning producing a few additional cm's before being overtaken by high pressure before lunch. High pressure continues to dominate on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity quieted right down on Tuesday & was limited to small avalanches out of steep, rocky unsupported terrain.

Snowpack Summary

The Purcell's are currently quite variable in terms of snowpack. 20 - 40 cm of new snow fell out of the weekend storm & this snow sits on the previous snow surface which consisted of loose dry snow in sheltered areas and old wind slab in exposed areas. Irregular winds out of the SE during the storm created slabs in unusual locations.The mid-December surface hoar/facet persistent weakness, now down around 55cm on the eastern side of the range and as deep as 190cm on the western side, is still causing operators concern, especially in shallow snowpack areas. Recent snowpack tests show moderate to hard, sudden planar results on this layer. The consequences of a failure on this layer would be large. Facets and depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack. Cornices are large and weak in some areas.Tuesday's wind/storm snow didn't come through as early as I expected, as a result, the danger Tuesday was probably more like Considerable, Considerable, Moderate. For some insight into how this can happen, see the forecasters blog: https://bit.ly/sF10fT

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.